基于互馈联合风险的城市水-能源耦合系统解析及优化配置方法研究

Water and energy are the important foundations and constraints for urban development. There are complicated coupling relations and interactions between water and energy. Optimizing the configuration of urban water and energy systems from a global perspective, and considering the correlations between water resources risk and energy risk as well as their joint-risk interaction, will improve the accuracy and efficiency of management decisions. This study aims to proposing a random-prediction-simulation and joint-risk interaction-response approach through identification of nexus and complexity of the coupling system. The proposed approach is effective for analyzing the joint-risk interaction-response mechanism and quantifying the complicated system problems. Meanwhile, a copula-based joint randomness-optimization programming (CJRP) method which can deal with incomplete information, randomness and interaction as well as multi-uncertainty existed in the coupling system is developed based on series of dynamic and inexact analysis techniques. The CJRP method is then applied to planning the water-energy coupling system (WECS) for the City of Zhengzhou, where a CJRP-WECS modelling will be established. Optimized schemes toward the aim of water resources efficiency, energy security and environmental protection will be obtained. Results will provide decision supports for the coordinated development of urban cities among water, energy, economy and society as well as environment.

水和能源是城市发展的重要基础和制约因素。水和能源两者之间存在复杂的耦合联系和互动关系。从全局角度出发优化配置城市水和能源系统，考虑水资源风险和能源风险相关性特征及水-能源耦合系统联合风险互动作用，有助于提升管理决策的准确性和效率。本研究基于对城市水-能源耦合系统互馈解析及复杂性辨识，提出城市水-能源随机预测模拟及联合风险互动响应分析方法，揭示水-能源联合风险互动响应机理，进而解析并定量化水-能源复杂系统问题。同时，借助多种动态及不确定性分析技术，研发基于copula函数的联合随机优化方法，以解决水-能源耦合系统中存在的信息不完整、随机、互动、交叉等多重不确定性问题。在上述基础上，以郑州市为研究案例，构建城市水-能源联合随机优化模型，提出以城市水资源高效利用、能源安全利用、环境保护为目标的最优化方案，为城市水、能源、经济、社会、环境的协调发展提供决策支撑。

水、能源、粮食（WEF）安全及协同调控是国家安全重大需求和国际学术前沿问题。分析WEF耦合系统多要素风险相关性特征及联合互动机理，提出基于多要素关联的协同优化方法及模型技术，是当前亟待解决的关键问题。为此，项目开发了一套不确定性条件下的区域耦合系统多要素互馈定量表征及协同优化管理方法，并在我国郑州市和河南省开展了实例研究。首先，基于copula函数和机会约束规划方法，提出了基于 copula 函数的联合随机优化方法，揭示了水-能源耦合系统联合风险互动响应机理。其次，基于水-能源风险分析结果，并拓展性的考虑水、能源和粮食三者之间的复杂相互作用关系，结合区间参数规划、二型模糊集和多层规划方法，提出了能处理耦合系统多层级、多目标、多重不确定性的混合单层/多层规划方法。最后，考虑水资源、能源、粮食、社会经济、生态环境等多维临界约束，构建了水-能源和水-能源-粮食协同优化模型，得到了资源多要素协同最优化管理与规划方案。成果将拓展和丰富耦合系统多要素互馈关系定量表征方法，发展耦合系统多要素协同建模技术，为区域资源安全保障与和谐发展提供理论支撑。项目成果在Journal of Hydrology, Agricultural Water Management, Energy Conversion and Management, Journal of Cleaner Production, Energy等中科院TOP SCI期刊上发表论文7篇，在北大核心期刊上发表论文1篇，均已标注项目号（51909239）；申请公开国家发明专利2项；培养在读硕士研究生2名。