人为核心的新型城镇化路径选择

Urbanization is China's sustainable and lasting economic growth power and the maximum potential domestic demand. "People" is the core issue of urbanization. The research intends to focus on the off-site transfer and in-situ urbanization issue, to analyze the characteristics, tendency and promoting mechanism of urbanization in China, based on the theories of dual sector model, Elements flow and agglomeration theory, etc. Statistics and econometric analysis is used to study the present condition and existing problems of China’s urbanization path selection and relevant policies. Typical case studies of urbanization such as Latin America, Yangtze River delta region and the central and western regions are used, in order to find problems in path planning of urbanization in our country. Quantitative analysis is used to study the population transference, urban and rural construction and the influence of social and economic development, to provide empirical support for the research conclusions. Through the research, theoretical supports for the current urbanization development practices as well as targeted and operable countermeasures and suggestions are formed to solve the urbanization path selection problem.

城镇化是中国经济可持续增长的持久动力和最大的潜在内需，“人”是城镇化的核心，关于“人往哪儿去”的路径选择是城镇化问题的重点难点。本课题拟通过收集相关统计数据和文献资料，在二元经济理论、要素流动与集聚等理论研究及相关实证分析的基础上，比较人口异地转移与就地城镇化二者的区别联系，概括总结我国城镇化进程中人口流动的模式特点、发展趋势与推进机制，深入探讨当前城镇化路径规划设计中存在的主要问题，量化分析中国城镇化路径选择对于转移人口的具体影响，同时对拉美地区、我国长三角及中西部地区等地的人口流动与城镇化路径进行案例分析。通过本课题的研究，回答“如何在人口异地转移与就地城镇化之间做出选择”“如何促进异地转移人口的市民化”“如何保障就地城镇化的可持续性”等问题，为现有城镇化发展实践提供理论支撑，并对城镇化路径选择问题形成有针对性、可操作的战略对策。

项目收集了大量与中国新型城镇化问题有关的统计数据，进行了系统全面的文献研究，围绕“以人为核心的新型城镇化”及相关问题，赴二十多个省（市、自治区）开展实地考察调研。项目研究坚持背靠理论、面向现实，将理论分析与实证研究相紧密结合，从新发展理念的视角分析了中国城镇化过程中面临的现实问题，提出新型城镇化转型发展的六方面具体路径。同时进一步完善了“网络型”城镇化与 “据点式”城镇化同步推进的二元城镇化战略，并提出要发挥城市群的带动作用建设现代化的都市圈，着力发展“五线城市”等政策建议。进一步地，项目研究从人力资本、人口老龄化、易地扶贫搬迁等多个角度对新型城镇化有关问题进行考察，深入探究了新型城镇化中与“人”这一核心要素有关的问题。项目研究还从创新驱动发展战略的视角，研究了新型城镇化过程中的产业支撑问题，探索了新型城镇化与创新创业、产业升级的互动关系，为打造“双创”升级版、创新型城市建设、完善粤港澳大湾区创新生态提供了对策建议。