就近城镇化导向的县域职住空间协同发展机制与规划调控研究——以鲁陕两省为例

Nearby urbanization is one of the new roads of urbanization, compared with remote urbanization, it is usually considered that nearby urbanization has the advantages of low economic cost and high happiness index, and then, the county region is the main space during the process of the urbanization. Faced with the complex market, welfare, traffic, family mechanism and other factors, during the process of nearby urbanization, the jobs-housing space in the country region appeared dislocation development phenomenon which increased commute costs and traffic hazards of non-agricultural employees, intensified the urbanization rate of statistical misrepresentation, the separation of the industry and city, and other synthesis problems. Based on the new urbanization of health promotion, this study aimed to find out the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the different people in different space of jobs-housing movement, and explored the objective law and its impact mechanism of nearby urbanization-oriented county region’s jobs-housing space during the collaborative development process, and built the model of employment accessibility to do the empirical research by combing with the actual construction of Shandong Province. On this basis, the survey attempted to put forward the combined models of county region’s jobs-housing space and planning control proposals in line with collaboration development, and conformed to the strategy which promoted the nearby urbanization of 100 million people in the central and western regions during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, then carried out the practices in the planning cases in Shanxi Province and Shandong Province , in order to correct and improve the results of theoretical research through the feedback.

就近城镇化是新型城镇化诸多类型的一种，相较于异地城镇化，通常认为其具备经济成本低、幸福指数高的优点，其中，县域是实现这一城镇化进程的主体空间范围。受到复杂的市场、福利、交通和家庭机制因素影响，在就近城镇化的进程中，县域内的职住空间的错位发展现象日趋凸显，这增加了非农就业者通勤成本和交通隐患、加剧了城镇化的测度偏差和产城分离等综合问题。本研究以健康推进新型城镇化为导向，立足摸清县域内不同类型的“人”在城乡空间上进行职-住流动的时空间行为特征，探索就近城镇化导向的县域职住空间在协同发展进程中的客观规律及其影响机制，并结合山东省的实际构建就业可达性等量化模型进行实证研究。在此基础上，研究尝试提出符合协同发展理念的县域职住空间组合模式及规划调控建议，并顺应国家“十三五”期间推进中西部地区1亿人就近城镇化的战略，同时在鲁陕二省进行规划的应用实践，进而通过反馈来完善理论研究的成果。

县域是实现就近城镇化进程的主体空间范围，山东省则是就近城镇化的典型代表。面临着多重影响，县域内的职住空间出现了错位发展的现象并衍生多种问题。从健康城镇化的目标出发，课题围绕就近城镇化的进程，以山东省的县市为研究对象，展开县域职住空间协同发展内涵及要素控制系统研究、发展进程及综合评价研究、影响机制及效用研究、规划调控目标及策略体系研究和规划编制及配套制度优化研究。通过理论、实证和应用三方面的系统工作，得到以下重要结果、关键数据及其应用前景。（1）在理论研究方面，课题组归纳提出了县级单元职住协同研究的基本框架、城镇化率与县域协同水平发展的U型曲线理论。（2）在实证研究方面：第一，建构了两段式综合评价法的县域职住协同水平评价体系，划分出三种职住组合类型，且发现山东县域的职住协同水平符合U型曲线理论；第二，建构了双重多因素作用的县域职住协同影响识别体系，运用多元线性回归和二元Logistic回归模型，识别出5个宏观影响因素和7个微观影响因素，并区分其作用效力；第三，在就近城镇化的过程中，县城通常是县域非农就业和居住的中心，村庄在居住方面具有一定吸引力，城乡之间形成的通勤占到县域的20%左右，且小城镇居民的职住组织效率高于县城和村庄；第四，架构了双战略导向下的县域职住协同规划调控框架，提出县域职住空间组织的“以人为本/动静两维/三元互动”的基本导向，籍此从居住、就业、交通和公共服务等要素进行空间落实的策略体系；第五，提出体现产城融合导向的高新区空间规划对策体系，明确了三个部分四个方面的流程及编制内容。（3）在应用研究方面，课题与陕西省城乡规划设计研究院等合作完成“潍坊乡村人口职住流动特征与城镇化策略研究”“陕西省铜川高新技术产业开发区总体规划”等应用项目。未来，成果将在县市和产业园区的国土空间规划、新型城镇化与城乡融合规划、城市更新规划等类型规划的编制及城乡通勤系统优化等领域具有较好的应用前景。