多层次视角下的县域就地城镇化格局、模式与机制研究——以山东省为例

County is an important platform for linking urban and rural development. However, many studies have focused on the urbanization of large cities, and insufficient attention has been paid on the county urbanization. In the background of new-type urbanization, the program propose the concept of in-situ urbanization within county by combining the migration and in-situ urbanization theories. Previous studies show that Shandong Province has typical features of in-situ urbanization within county, therefore, we select the Shandong Province as the study case and then investigate its development pattern, development model, development potential and dynamic mechanism of in-situ urbanization from multi-level perspectives. Firstly, we will measure the level of in-situ urbanization within county by constructing a complex index system, and then study its temporal and spatial evolution law and the main determinants with the spatial analysis technique. Secondly, at the county level, three typical counties will be selected to study in-depth. We will investigate the law of population agglomeration within the county and the construction model of rural community. Besides, the formation mechanism of three counties’ in-situ urbanization development model will also be discussed from the perspective of the multiple actors. Thirdly, at the individual level, we will investigate the peasants’ migration intention of moving to cities, and then evaluate the development potential of in-situ urbanization within county. At the same time, we will use the multi-level regression model to investigate the determinants of peasants’ migration intentions. Finally, based on the study findings above, policy suggestions to promote the development of the county urbanization will be summarized. Overall, the program has important theoretical and practical significance for enriching the theory of in-situ urbanization and promoting the development of county urbanization.

县域是统筹城乡发展的重要平台，然而，当前城镇化研究却对县域的城镇化关注相对较少。为此，在新型城镇化背景下，本项目结合人口流动及就地城镇化的新发展，提出县域就地城镇化概念，并选取县域就地城镇化较为典型的山东省为案例，从多层次视角对山东省县域就地城镇化发展格局、发展模式、发展潜力及动力机制进行研究。具体包括：省域层面，在测度县域就地城镇化水平基础上，基于空间分析技术考察其时空演变规律及主要影响因素；县域层面，选取三个典型县域，通过考察农业转移人口在县域内的集聚规律和社区建设情况，分析其发展模式，并从多元行为主体视角考察其形成机制；个体层面，通过问卷调研分析农民的县域就地城镇化意愿，评估县域就地城镇化发展潜力，并基于多层回归模型分析影响农民就地城镇化意愿的多层次因素；最后，总结促进县域就地城镇化发展的政策建议。该课题的实施对于丰富就地城镇化理论和促进县域城镇化发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。

县域作为中国行政区划的基本单元，是城乡融合发展的重要平台。在新时代背景下，随着人口回流趋势的增强和县内城乡“双栖型”流动人口的增加，以及乡村振兴战略的实施，加快推进县域城镇化发展十分必要。为此，本项目结合人口流动及就地城镇化的新发展，提出了县域就地城镇化概念，并以山东省为例，对县域就地城镇化的内涵、测度、机制等内容进行了研究，提出了促进县域就地城镇化发展的政策建议。研究发现：①县域就地城镇化是指农业转移人口在同一个县域范围内，向县城、乡镇、农村社区、就地转型的村庄等具有城镇功能形态地区就地转移，实现城镇化的过程。②当前人口流动特征、农民城镇化意愿和国家政策是推进县域就地城镇化的现实基础；而农民城镇化积极性不高、中小城市吸引力薄弱、农民集中居住问题突出等则是地方在推进县域就地城镇化过程中面临的关键问题。③对于县域就地城镇化的测度，可从人口城镇化率、县内人口流动率、县域人口流出率三个维度综合考察；在形成机制上，政府发挥了自上而下的引导作用，企业集聚形成了就地城镇化的经济动力，而农民则形成了自下而上的推动力量。④在农民城镇化意愿上，农民进城定居意愿较弱，且大多倾向于在县城或小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居。影响农民进城意愿的主要因素包括：个体人力资本禀赋、家庭人口结构、物质资本存量、城乡联系以及地区社会经济发展水平等。⑤未来，可重点从增强农民进城定居能力、关注返乡农民工群体、提升中小城市和小城镇吸引力、适度推进农民集中居住、培育建设特色小镇等方面加快县域就地城镇化发展。同时，要将就地城镇化与乡村振兴战略有机结合，将县域就地城镇化作为引领乡村振兴战略实施的有效抓手。在理论上，该课题丰富了就地城镇化的理论内涵和概念体系，进一步完善了乡城迁移的解释框架；在实践中，该研究有利于制定相关政策，破除相关障碍因素，促进县域城镇化发展。