考虑需求不确定性的信息产品时序差异化最优策略

This project is proposed by following the intrinsic features of information products and the demand of corresponding industrial development. It intends to make a systematic investigation on the intertemporal differentiation of information products under uncertain customers' requirements. First, field investigations are conducted to estimate the relational model of the uncertainty of customers' requirements with product quality. Then, a two-period framework is proposed to characterize the coevolution of information products and customers' requirements. The customer utility function is defined of the individual required quality, the intolerance to quality degradation, and impatience to new products of every customer based on the prospect theory in the first period. The word of mouth effect produced by the quality of products released in the first period is considered to define the customer utility function in the second period. Second, when the monopolist market is assumed, the intertemporal differentiation of an information product by a monopolist is built as a bilevel programming model, where the leader is the monopolist, and customers are followers. For the market with dual competitors (duopoly or two asymmetrical firms), this task is represented as a bilevel programming model with two noncooperative leaders, in which two leaders are competing firms, and customers choose from products by two firms. Finally, due to the complexity of these models consisting of nonlinear multimodal objective functions with discrete and continuous decision variables, coevolutionary algorithms are developed to solve these problems under various market scenarios regarding uncertainty of customers' requirements. Thus, diverse strategies for the intertemporal differentiation of information products can be examined, and optimal ones are suggested to the monopolist or two competing firms. This project is targeted to the long-term demand of information product and service industries for rapid growth by delivering a theoretical foundation and real-world viable suggestions to information product firms on intertemporal differentiation of information products.

本项目根据信息产品特性和信息产业实践需要，拟对顾客需求不确定情景下信息产品时序差异化问题进行系统深入研究。首先，通过实践调查构建信息产品质量与顾客需求不确定性的函数关系模型。其次，针对顾客需求和信息产品的协同演化过程，采用两阶段建模思路，分别建立考虑顾客需求质量、质量容忍和新产品偏爱的第一阶段顾客效用函数，以及考虑市场口碑效应的第二阶段顾客效用函数。然后，针对存在顾客需求不确定性的完全垄断市场和竞争性市场，分别构建垄断厂商追求两个阶段收益最大化的时序差异化策略的两层规划模型，以及两个竞争厂商分别追求两个阶段收益最大化的时序差异化决策的非合作双领导人的两层规划模型。最后，设计适合求解两层规划模型的协同进化计算方法，分析存在顾客需求不确定性情景下信息产品厂商的典型行为和最优策略选择。本项目选题符合国家重大战略规划和产业发展需求，有着典型的实践意义和潜在应用前景。

针对分阶段软件产品的研发和发布产业实践，分析了软件产品的经济特性和阶段性发布策略。在两阶段框架内，定义了消费者需求不确定性以及源于需求不确定性的口碑效应函数，以及定义了两阶段的消费者支付意愿函数。同时，考虑垄断软件厂商在第一阶段发布质量较低（部分质量）的软件版本，在第二阶段发布能够满足消费者需求的最高质量版本产品，软件厂商通过选择第一阶段的产品质量与两个阶段的产品价格以实现利润最大化。建立了软件厂商两阶段产品质量和价格决策的非线性优化模型，通过采用数值方法求解该模型，分析了消费者需求的不确定性程度对软件厂商决策的影响，给出了厂商在不同市场情景下的最佳策略选择。针对软件厂商的销售渠道选择和版本化策略选择问题，考虑信息产品供应商与零售商之间的两种销售版权转让方式（固定费用定价和按份销售定价），建立了两种方式下的收益最大化模型。考虑直销渠道、零售渠道和双重渠道三种渠道结构，建立了供应商采用直销渠道和零售渠道销售产品的收益最优化模型，分析了供应商、零售商和消费者的决策行为和策略选择。针对当前信息产品商提供的买方驱动的捆绑策略，研究了两维消费者异质性的信息产品定制捆绑策略设计。同时考虑了网络外部性的信息产品跨时期混合捆绑现象，采用两阶段模型探究考虑网络外部性的信息产品跨时期混合捆绑策略设计。针对信息产品企业的竞争与合作问题，利用重复囚徒困境博弈模型（IPD），引入收益流风险概念和基于前景理论，构造了企业风险态度与博弈策略协同演化的多Agents演化IPD博弈模型，分析了分别基于历史收益比较和社会收益比较进行风险态度调整时，博弈群体的合作演化结果。.本项目研究总计发表中英文期刊论文8篇，包括SCI/SSCI检索期刊论文6篇（IJPE, C&IE, APJOR, JEC、ASC, SC, 中国管理科学,管理科学学报等）；国际国内学术会议报告和交流论文29人次，包括ICIS、CNAIS、CSWIM等信息管理与信息系统领域国内外主流学术会议；培养博士生4人;部分成果已在转化应用中取得了初步实效。