银行区域内竞争的实体经济效应与金融稳定效应：基于微观数据的机制分析

One of the key features of China’s financial industry is fierce bank competition in local markets, which is crucial for real economy and financial stability. Using aggregate data in macro-analysis, most existing literature lacks a solid micro-foundation. This program aims to take the perspective from local bank competition and use micro-data in order to examine the channels through which bank competition affects real economy and financial stability. This program plans to use unique data from the China Banking Regulatory Commission to precisely define and measure local competition at city level; to construct panel data of industry-city-year with industry data, which helps us identify the capital reallocation channel through which bank competition affect local economic activity; to identify the financial integration channel through which bank competition affects regional economic volatility; to measure financial stability by regulator fines, which helps us with the analysis of how bank competition impacts local financial stability. This program aims to measure local bank competition, to shed light on the micro channels through which bank competition affects real economy and financial stability, to provide micro-foundation from new perspective with new data and new methods, to generate policy implications for financial regulation.

银行业在区域内高度竞争是当前我国金融业的重要特征，事关实体经济发展和金融稳定大局。既有研究大多从宏观视角利用总体数据分析，微观基础较为缺乏，微观机制尚不明晰。本项目旨在从银行业区域内竞争的视角，利用微观数据，探索银行竞争影响实体经济和金融稳定的微观机制。本项目将利用银监会独家数据，准确定义和测度地级市层面的银行竞争度；利用行业数据构建行业-城市-年份三维面板数据，尝试识别银行竞争影响区域内经济活动的资本再配置机制；识别银行竞争影响区域间经济波动的金融一体化机制；利用行政处罚数据度量金融稳定，分析银行竞争对当地金融稳定的影响。本项目通过刻画银行区域内竞争程度，厘清银行业竞争影响实体经济和金融稳定的具体机制，用新数据和新方法从新视角为已有文献补充微观基础，并为制定金融监管政策提供理论依据。

我国金融体系是以商业银行为主导的。商业银行很大程度上决定金融服务实体经济的能力和效率，也很大程度上影响金融监管和金融稳定。当前我国商业银行的发展，还面临着新冠疫情冲击和充满不确定性的环境。本课题主要从四个方面展开研究，包括金融监管与银行服务实体经济的能力，银行竞争与实体经济融资成本，疫情冲击下银行服务实体经济，政策不确定性与银行服务实体经济的能力。本课题有以下主要发现：（1）不确定性对银行信贷和服务实体经济的能力有显著的负面影响，但金融审慎监管政策可以有效降低这一冲击。（2）疫情对银行信贷和服务实体经济的能力也有显著的负面影响。（3）银行的市场份额将增强银行的议价能力，导致企业融资成本的上升。本课题研究中广泛采用银行信贷数据、财务数据、企业数据、不确定性指标等。本课题的政策建议主要包括，强化金融审慎监管，在维护金融稳定的同时有助于缓解不确定性的负面冲击；加强银行业竞争，降低银行市场份额过大导致的过高议价能力，提升银行服务实体经济的能力，降低实体经济融资成本。