灌区水-能源-粮食纽带系统要素作用机理与资源协同利用

Water, energy and food, which are deeply interlinked, are crucial material and strategic resources for human survival and strategic resources. Under the context of population growth and climate change, shortage risks of these three resources are getting serious. The research on the water-energy-food nexus has becoming a hotspot and front in sustainable development field. However, problems, such as how these three resources interact with each other and how to allocate resources in the nexus synergistically, are still unclear, which have been becoming the main bottleneck of advanced research. In order to solve these problems, the Zhanghe irrigation district in Hubei Province is selected as study area. The resources fluxes entering, leaving, and circulating within the system are monitored to reveal the interrelated dynamics among the three resources by using Life Cycle Assessment. A system dynamics model is built then for the nexus to simulate the resources consumption and the environmental effect. The water shortage risk, energy shortage risk and food security risk is quantified by accounting uncertainties from hydrometeorological and social economical aspects into the dynamics model. A multi-objective optimization model for allocating multi-resources synergistically in the nexus system is established by combing risk analysis model and optimizing method. The optimal resources utilization scheme of the nexus under condition of avoiding risks is then proposed. This project will provide new method for the study of nexus system and provide technical support for sustainable development of study area.

水、能源和粮食是人类生存与经济社会发展的重要物质基础和战略资源，三者相互依存，联系紧密。在全球人口增长、气候变化影响加剧的背景下，水资源短缺、能源短缺与粮食安全风险日益严峻。以水-能源-粮食纽带系统为对象开展研究已成为可持续发展方向的热点和前沿，但系统各要素间如何相互作用，资源如何协同利用等问题尚不清晰，已成为进一步研究的瓶颈。为此，选择湖北漳河灌区为背景，通过对灌区资源通量的全过程监控，结合生命周期评价方法，研究资源流动与相互作用关系；在此基础上构建灌区纽带系统动力学模拟模型，模拟分析不同情景下资源消耗及其对环境影响；综合考虑水文气象，经济社会等因素不确定性，定量研究系统水资源短缺、能源短缺与粮食安全风险；耦合风险分析模型与优化方法，构建纽带系统资源资源高效利用多目标协同优化配置模型，提出风险规避条件下的资源协同利用方案。项目将为纽带系统研究提供新思路，为实现区域可持续发展提供技术支撑。

灌区是水、能源、粮食相互作用最密切的区域之一，分析灌区水-能源-粮食纽带系统要素间相互作用规律，探索灌区资源配置方案对实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本项目以水稻为研究对象，在田间尺度开展了水稻生育期不同灌溉、施肥条件下水、能源投入监测试验，初步探明了水、能源与粮食之间的量化关系，在此基础上，构建了田间、区域尺度水量迁移转化模型，所构建的模型能有效考虑作物生长过程中从渠道、塘堰等不同水源条件下的灌溉过程，为分析不同尺度灌溉水、能源消耗提供了可靠的工具，并利用copula函数进一步分析了降雨、需水联合随机不确定性特征。结合漳河灌区具体情况，考虑降雨-径流联合随机性与非一致性特征，基于随机规划方法构建了年、季尺度水、能优化配置模型，项目为深入开展区域水、能资源协同利用，保障粮食安全提供了有利的技术支撑。