水资源-能源纽带关系与保障风险综合模型体系与应用

Water resources and energy are mutually restricted and fed to each other in various forms, both of them are driving and restricting social and economic development. Based on the preliminary work of the applicant, this study takes the water-energy nexus as principal line, analyzes the interaction mechanism among social, economic and ecological environment system from the perspective of physical association and economic association in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Then risk forming process and the interaction mechanism of hazard-bearing body based on the risk theory in energy-water nexus system are explored. Bidirectional accounting is carried out based on the life-cycle method, and complex network is used to analyze the circulation features of energy-water system, all these are done on the base of the construction of macro regional water resource physical-value mixed input-output table. Multi-level and multi-objective optimization configuration model and two-stage SD model are established in different areas. Time-varying Copula is constructed to study the possibility of energy shortage under the condition of water shortage. TFIG and Liang-Kleeman information flow are used to construct the energy-water security risk index system, Cloud Model and CBN technology are integrated to established energy-water security risk index model, and corresponding calculation software are compiled. The findings could provide a demonstration of similar research in other regions.

水资源与能源以各种形式相互制约并互馈压力，二者对社会经济发展的驱动与制约作用日趋显著。在申请者前期工作的基础上，以水-能纽带关系为主线，从物理关联和经济关联等多角度深入解析京津冀地区社会、经济与生态环境三大系统内水-能相互作用机理；以风险理论为基础、探索水-能耦合系统风险形成过程以及对承险体的相互作用机制。基于生命周期法开展水－能双向核算，在构造地区间宏观水资源实物-价值混合型投入产出表的基础上，利用复杂网络分析水-能系统网络流通特征；分地区构建水-能系统多层多目标优化配置模型以及SD二阶演化模型。构造时变Copula联合分布函数，研究在水资源短缺发生条件下能源短缺发生的可能性；利用TFIG和Liang-Kleeman信息流构建水-能耦合系统保障风险指标体系，融合云模型和CBN技术分区建立水-能耦合系统保障风险模型，编制相应的计算软件；该研究成果可为其他地区开展类似研究提供示范。

水资源和能源是人类社会发展过程中不可或缺的两类重要资源，前者作为基础性自然资源，对人类的生存起着基础性保障作用，后者作为重要的战略资源，对保障国家安全及地区经济发展至关重要。开展了水资源与能源纽带关系理论解析；运用集成混合生命周期法（Integrated hybrid LCA,IH LCA）开展了基于生命周期法的水－能双向核算，量化了水资源和能源在整个生命周期中的消耗。研究表明：我国能源隐含水总量为400.53亿m3，内蒙古、山西、陕西和四川是能源隐含水总量最高的四个省份；水资源隐含能总量为5.08×106 TJ，整体呈现“南高北低”的特征，农业、工业、生活和生态用水隐含能占比分别为12.38%、56.68%、29.92%和1.02%。构建了水-能流通复杂网络模型，分析了水-能系统网络流通特征，为地区水-能协同发展提供支持；综合考虑发电、燃料供应、地表水、地下水、外调水及再生水供应等因素，分地区构建了多目标、多层决策模型并寻求了使多级决策者满意的综合解决方案。建立了水-能耦合系统保障风险综合模型体系，借助耦合协调度模型分析了水资源与能源的相互影响程度和协调发展水平，在此基础上结合地区的地理特征和资源禀赋等提出了相应的风险管控建议。研究成果对地区水资源与能源的高效及可持续利用提供了支撑。