基于协同学和不确定系统分析的灌区水-能源-粮食协调发展评价与调控方法

Research on water-energy-food nexus (WEFN) is of significance in terms of both theoretical advancements and practical applications. Previous studies on WEFN mainly focused on conceptual frameworks or qualitative descriptions. Quantitative methods have been scarcely reported, which makes it hard to evaluate the balance status of the WEFN system or support relevant decision-making. It is desired to develop systems analysis tools for remedying such shortcomings. In this research, a new interdisciplinary framework will be proposed, which will expands conventional studies focusing on an individual or two elements. Three major research tasks will be undertaken, including characterization, evaluation and optimization of WEFN systems. In detail, theories of synergetics and entropy will be introduced to develop an evaluation approach that measures the synergistic degree of WEFN systems under uncertainty. Based on the factorial programming and uncertainty analysis approaches, a planning model and its corresponding algorithm will be advanced for identifying optimal adjustment strategies of the WEFN systems. The current synergetic degree of the study WEFN system will be analyzed. Decision alternatives will also be identified regarding the optimal adjustments in industrial and agricultural structures and scales, water resources allocation, and irrigation technologies adoption. Achievements of this research will promote knowledge advancements of WEFN studies from qualitative descriptions to quantitative decision support. Results of this research are expected to set up an example for dealing with multiple challenges in ensuring water resources security, energy security and food security.

水—能源—粮食纽带关系（WEFN）研究具有科学价值、关乎国计民生。现有WEFN理论研究多侧重概念框架或定性描述，定量研究较少，难以衡量三者发展是否协调、遑论支撑调控决策，亟需采用系统科学分析工具寻求突破。本项目打破学科壁垒、拓展以单一或两要素为中心的传统研究框架，开展区域性WEFN系统特征辨识与表征、协调度评价和规划决策三方面工作。在厘清纽带关系的基础上，引入协同学和信息熵理论建立不确定条件下WEFN系统协调度评价方法，解决WEFN系统总体协调程度的测度问题；结合分式规划和不确定性分析方法，建立WEFN系统规划决策模型和相应算法，解决调控方案的寻优问题。评估水资源、能源和粮食协调发展现状，并提供优化产业规模和结构、优配水资源并优选灌溉方式的决策方案。研究成果将实现WEFN理论研究由概念框架向决策支持方向发展，为缓解水安全、能源安全和粮食安全多重保障压力提供可借鉴范式。

水、能源、粮食是人类基础性、战略性资源，供需互馈、安全互联。资源间以及资源系统与外围系统间动态交互，形成了要素关联复杂的水-能-粮纽带系统（以下简称“纽带系统”）。以往纽带系统研究多关注两两关系，侧重定性描述和案例分析，亟需新理论、新方法解析三者关系，服务决策支持。此外，我国北方干旱灌区面临着有限的水资源难以支撑国家粮食主产区和能源基地建设的现实窘境，“灌区水-能源-粮食纽带关联关系及协同调控”是亟待解决的科学问题，也是缓解我国资源安全多重保障压力的现实所需。本项目以黄河上中游灌区纽带系统为研究对象，结合原位观测、数值模拟和系统工程优化等手段，紧扣“怎样关联”、“是否协同”、“如何调控”这三大问题，在纽带关系机理揭示、协同评估模型建立、协同优化方法研发三方面取得了研究进展。成果一是水-能-粮多回路互动耦合机理。通过核心利益相关者的交互界定与协调，构建了改进型因果循环模型，解析了灌区纽带系统多元反馈回路和可控因子；借助灰色关联熵的优势，构建了资源匹配分析和投入-产出模型，解析了灌水量与用电量、作物产量等关联关系。成果二是水-能-粮协同性评估及风险模拟模型。构建了多维度、多层次纽带系统协调评估-进化模型，模拟了纽带系统协同演化过程，明确了影响系统协调的关键因子，确立了系统协同稳定态的判据；揭示了耗水量-耗能量-耕地面积联合概率分布规律，建立了纽带系统多维联合风险模拟模型。成果三是水-能-粮多维风险调控及协同优化方法。基于水短缺风险评估，建立了水权置换和水资源优化配置模型，提出了能源产业投资节水设施并置换水权的双赢方案；提出了基于Copula分析的多维联合风险管理模型，明晰了风险与效益的动态交互，识别了耦合风险阈值，实现了灌区多维联合风险的综合防控。最终形成不确定条件下灌区纽带系统模拟-评价-优化方法体系，推动纽带系统研究从理论到决策转化，促进干旱灌区高效绿色可持续发展。