三峡库区农户生计与生态系统服务耦合关系与调控机制研究

Understanding the coupled relationship between rural livelihoods and ecosystem services is the basis to coordinate Human - earth relationship, then to promote regional sustainable development. From the perspective of livelihoods coupled with ecosystem services, this proposal tries to analyze the formation and evolution mechanism of man-land relationship in the Three Gorges reservoir area, where there the contradiction between man and land is highlighted, also ecological environment is fragile. By integrating household survey, ecosystem monitoring and model simulations, this proposal plans to, (1) analyze spatial and temporal patterns of the main livelihood model and the key ecosystem services; (2) explore the interaction between rural livelihood and ecosystem services, clarify the impact and dependence of rural livelihood on ecosystem services, as well as the response and feedback of the ecosystem services on rural livelihoods; (3) reveal loop feedback process among the various rural livelihoods and multiple ecosystem services, and to identify the various feedback pathway, the positive and negative feedback effects; (4) summarize the main coupled models between livelihoods and ecosystem services,to identify the important factors affecting the coupling relationship, then to find the critical path for livelihoods improvement and ecosystem services enhance. To reveal the humanities and the natural drive mechanism for coupled process between livelihood and ecosystem services with multi-element, multi-level, multi-mode, to provide a scientific basis for achievement a "win-win" goal of the rural livelihoods improvement and ecosystem services protection by regulating human-earth relationship.

理解农户生计与生态系统服务的耦合关系是协调农村人地关系，促进区域可持续发展的基础。项目拟以人地矛盾突出、生态环境脆弱的三峡库区为对象，从生计与生态系统服务耦合的视角系统研究库区农村人地关系的形成和演化机制。综合农户调查、生态监测、模型模拟等手段，(1)分析主要生计模式与关键生态系统服务的时空格局；(2)探讨农户生计与生态系统服务的相互影响，阐明农户生计对生态系统服务的影响与依赖，以及生态系统服务对农户生计的响应和反馈；(3)揭示多种农户生计模式与多重生态系统服务间的循环反馈作用，识别各种反馈路径与正负反馈效应；(4)归纳农户生计与生态服务相互耦合的主要模式，辨识影响耦合关系的主要因素，探明改善生计与提高生态服务的关键途径。系统揭示农户生计与生态服务耦合过程的多元、多层次、多模式的人文与自然驱动机制，为调控人地关系，实现农户生计改善与生态系统服务保护"双赢"目标提供科学基础。

在农户生计调查、生态系统监测、土地利用航空遥感调查的基础上，开展了生态系统服务评估、农户生计构成与特征分析、农户生计与生态系统耦合关系分析，结果表明：（1）自1992年以来研究区生态系统服务的总体变化是水源涵养减少，土壤保持增加，农产品供给减少；服务的空间差异并不显著。（2）农户生计资本水平偏低，空间差异显著，非农化是目前研究区农户主要的生计策略，生计多元化具有较大的潜力。（3）生计非农化导致耕地撂荒较为普遍，影响了土壤保持和水源涵养。供给服务对农户生计收入的贡献下降，农业收入占全部收入的比重为23%。（4）基于物质流分析，发现研究区存在多种生计与生态系统服务的反馈链；以生计为目标的反馈形式是绝对多数，反馈形式以正反馈为主。以生态系统调节服务为目标的反馈链是少数。（5）总体上农户生计与生态系统服务的耦合程度在减弱，生计与生态系统服务的耦合方式发生了变化。新型农业主体正在成为农村土地利用的主体，与生态系统服务的关系更为密切，但在协调生态与生计方面仍然较为薄弱。（6）生计策略是影响生计与生态系统服务耦合关系的关键因素。通过生态系统服务的合理利用可以有效改善农户生计状况，潜力集中在森林的非木材产品服务和水塘生态系统服务升级。生态补偿也是改善调节服务的重要生计来源。总结出基于绿色发展的生态-生计协调的模式。（7）农户生计与生态系统服务耦合关系的变化政策启示是需要依托新型城镇化建设推动农户生计转型，促进精准扶贫；积极推进山区绿色发展，将生态优势转化为经济优势；以水塘为核心，开展流域综合管理，打造山水林田湖生命共同体的三峡样本。注重新型农村社会的建设，实现政府-企业-社区-合作社-大户-散户的利益相关者组织重建。推动以生态补偿为核心的生态移民政策设计。