基于中国专利更新数据的专利权市场价值评估

Patent holders should pay annual fee to renew their patents. Only when private value of patent protection exceeds annual fee, will a patentee renew his patents. Based on this idea, we estimate market value of patent protection in China using Chinese patent renewal data. Assume that the intial market value of a certain patent cohort follows a certain distribution function and decay with a constant rate. From the patent renewal rule, we can obtain the theoretical vlaue of patent renewal ratio. Then using OLS, Nonlinear Least Squares, and Generalized Nonlinear Least Squares, we estimate the form of distribution function and decay rate under which the theoretical values and observed patent renewal ratios match best. Classifying patents in different cohorts, we can study many interesting issues: test whether market value of patents coincides with their technolgical values by comparing inventions with utility models and designs; test whether there is statistically and economically significant difference between patents held by foreign and domestic innovators respectively; study relative effectiveness of patent protection in different industries;study how patent policy reforms have affected patent values; construct weighted patent indices which can better measure innovative output; together with Chinese customs database, test demand inducement hypothesis and technology opportunity hypothesis. Finally, based on above research, we will provide some practical suggestions for how to reform patent policy and how to encourage indigenous innovations.

专利持有者需要缴纳年费才能更新其专利有效性。只有当专利市场价值高于年费时，专利持有者才会更新专利。据此，本课题将利用中国专利更新数据估计专利保护的市场价值。假设特定专利群体的初始价值服从某个分布函数并随时间衰减，则由专利更新规则可得专利更新比的理论预测值，再用普通最小二乘法、非线性最小二乘法和广义非线性最小二乘法等计量方法，估计使理论预测值与实际观察值最为相符的分布函数和衰减率参数。我们将按不同标准对中国专利进行分类和价值估计，并研究如下问题：比较发明与使用新型和外观设计，检验市场价值与技术价值是否一致；比较外国申请者专利与国内专利是否存在明显的价值差异；分析专利保护在不同产业中的相对有效性；考察专利政策变化对专利价值的影响；构造更加准确度量创新产出价值的专利加权指数；结合中国海关数据库，考察需求拉动和技术机会对创新价值的定量影响。最后，对改革专利制度和推动自主创新提出切实可行的政策建议。

专利持有者需要缴纳年费才能更新其专利有效性。只有当专利市场价值高于年费时，专利持有者才会更新专利。据此，本课题将利用中国专利更新数据估计专利保护的市场价值。假设特定专利群体的初始价值服从某个分布函数并随时间衰减，则由专利更新规则可得专利更新比的理论预测值，再用普通最小二乘法、非线性最小二乘法和广义非线性最小二乘法等计量方法，估计使理论预测值与实际观察值最为相符的分布函数和衰减率参数。进一步通过匹配中国专利数据库、中国工业企业数据库和中国上市公司数据库，我们将研究如下问题：估计中国专利的市场价值，构造更加准确度量创新产出价值的专利加权指数；从各维度详细讨论中国企业的创新特征；计算中国地区、产业、企业等维度的创新力指数；分析创新政策对企业创新绩效的影响；考察产业政策对企业创新绩效的影响；从地方竞争的视角研究中国企业的创新绩效；最后，对改革专利制度和推动自主创新提出切实可行的政策建议。