高铁与民航的竞争与合作：博弈分析与实证研究

The High-Speed Rail (HSR) development in China exhibits two significant trends: the HSR network is covering more cities and it’s getting more closely connected to airport terminals. The rapid HSR development could not only shape the competition and cooperation dynamics between air and HSR, it also affects airport operation and the competition among regional airports. To this end, this project would first develop three models, i.e., airline and HSR competition and cooperation model in a hub and spoke network, regional hub airports competition model under the air and HSR integration service, a social welfare maximization model considering environmental benefits. The proposed models, together with numerical case studies, are used to investigate: 1) the effects of passenger types, air and HSR connection service level on airline’s optimal choices of competition strategy; 2) the airport leakage effects brought by air and HSR integration and possible mitigation strategies; 3) the environmental and social welfare implications of air and HSR integration. An empirical analysis is then conducted to validate the main conclusions obtained. The project aims at enhancing the understanding of air and HSR relations for relevant stakeholders such as airlines, airports as well as policy makers. It would also promote the development of air and HSR integration service and provide policy recommendations on coordinated development of multi-airport systems in China's three core city clusters.

目前我国处于高速铁路的快速发展期，其发展呈现两大趋势：1）高铁干线、支线以及城际网络持续加密拓宽；2）高铁与民航的衔接将更加紧密，旅客换乘更加便捷。在此背景下，高铁与航空公司的竞争与合作将呈现崭新的格局，高铁对机场的运营、机场之间的竞争也将产生深远影响。本项目通过构建轴辐式运输网络中高铁与航空公司的竞争与合作模型、“空铁联运”模式下双枢纽机场竞争模型、政府视角下的社会福利最大化模型，结合相关案例，探讨旅客构成、联运中转水平等对高铁和航空公司竞合策略、服务水平、利润的影响，分析联运带来的虹吸效应以及机场可能的应对策略，评估“空铁联运”产生的环境和社会福利的效应。最后将通过实证分析验证部分主要结论。本研究旨在加深航空公司、机场以及政府部门对民航与高铁之间竞合关系的理解，促进我国“空铁联运”的发展，为京津冀等城市群内各机场的协同运行和差异化发展提供政策建议。

该课题以促进我国综合交通运输体系的建设和发展为出发点，首先基于多项式Logit模型，构建了“空铁联运”市场需求预测模型，通过RP+SP调查问卷，以京广线为例对模型参数进行标定，并采用上述模型对首都机场部分国内航线进行以联运为基础的调整优化。该研究内容延伸了民航航线网络规划的思路和方法；其次，创新和发展了航空和高铁竞争与合作博弈理论分析模型，通过对比分析不同机场所有制、区域机场合作与否、航空公司与高铁合作与否等不同条件组合下的均衡解，得到民航与高铁合作/竞争的边界条件，从福利经济学的角度探索了“空铁联运”的影响，丰富了航空公司与高铁竞争合作关系的理论研究。课题相关研究成果揭示了航空公司在运距相近的航线上面对高铁采取完全不同的竞争与合作策略的机理，对高铁网络的快速发展所产生的系统性影响提供一个较为全局的视角，有助于政府部门合理地引导高铁与民航之间的关系，为区域内多机场之间的协同发展提供一定的政策建议。相关研究成果已通过技术报告的形式提交至中国民航局。