风险型飞行员的人格与操作特征识别研究

The pilots and their operation behavior would affect flight operation safety directly. Incidents statistics indicated that risk proneness exists among some pilots; however it is difficult to identify them due to their personality trait, flight operation characteristics and the correlation between the two is not yet clear. This project aims to examine risky pilots’ internal personality traits and external operation characteristics through the method of flight situation questionnaires, flight Quick Access Recorder (QAR) data and flight simulation experiments. Firstly, the ‘risky pilots’ will be defined and their unsafe event features will be analyzed from QAR data statistics. Secondly, risky pilots’ personality traits and related components will be measured by jointly using flight simulation experiment and pilot survey. Thirdly, flight operation characteristics will be extracted from QAR data through application of data mining and statistical modeling. Meanwhile the quantitative evaluation method on flight operation characteristics will be examined. Fourthly, the structural equation model method is adopted to study the effecting mechanism of personality traits on flight operations and the results will be further verified in experiments. Finally the selection and training solution will be put forward based on the theoretical results. The project outcomes are expected to provide a theoretical basis and applicable method for the achievement of identification, screening and optimization of risky pilot in airlines. It will be very meaningful for improving flight safety in a proactive way.

飞行员及其操作行为直接影响飞机运行安全，部分飞行员在事件统计上已表现出一定的风险倾向，但由于他们的人格特征、飞行操作特征以及二者关系尚未明确，给识别带来很大困难。本项目拟通过飞行情境问卷调查、QAR大数据挖掘、模拟机实验，综合研究风险型飞行员内隐人格特质和外显飞行操作特征，探索风险人格特质影响飞行操作的机理。首先对“风险型飞行员”进行概念化构建，从超限事件统计中挖掘其超限特征；然后综合应用飞行情境问卷和模拟机实验，测量风险型飞行员人格特质及相关成份；再应用大数据挖掘和统计建模，从QAR数据中提取飞行操作特征信息，确定飞行操作特征的定量评价方法；再通过结构方程模型研究风险人格特质影响飞行操作的机理，并进行模拟机实验验证；最后基于理论成果提出风险型飞行员特征识别和训练优化方案。项目预期成果为航空公司识别、筛选、优化“风险型飞行员”提供有效依据，对前移安全关口、提高飞行安全水平具有重要现实意义。

飞行中“人”的因素一直是引发民航飞行事故与不安全事件的主要因素，飞行员及其操作行为直接影响飞机运行安全，部分飞行员在不安全事件统计上已经表现出了风险倾向性，但他们的人格特征、飞行操作特征以及二者相关性尚未明确，给识别带来困难。.本项目的研究目标是通过飞行情境问卷调查、大样本快速存取记录器（Quick Access Recorder, QAR）数据挖掘、模拟机实验综合研究风险型飞行员的内在人格特质和外显飞行操作特征，研究不同人格特征的飞行员的操作动作倾向的差异性，挖掘飞行员人格特征与其操作特征之间的相关性。.本研究在国内外首次提出“风险型飞行员”的概念，并通过飞行数据挖掘出了“风险型飞行员”的超限事件特征，提出面向“风险型飞行员”的画像方法和指标体系；为进一步探索“风险型飞行员”的飞行操作特征，基于飞行QAR数据和飞行品质监控标准，提出多种量化评价风险型飞行员操作技能的方法，包括基于功率谱的飞行操作技能评价、基于小波分析的飞行操作技能评价、基于曲线相似度的飞行着陆操作评价方法等，实现了从多个维度实现对飞行操作技能的客观量化评价；在“风险型飞行员”超限事件特征和操作技能特征评价研究的基础上，应用心理测量方法对飞行员的人格特质进行了研究，开展了风险人格特质及其对飞行操作的影响研究，发现航线飞行员的风险心理特征与操作水平显著相关；同时，通过设计并实施模拟飞行实验发，现危险态度对飞行冒险操作产生正向影响，飞行员的风险知觉对冒险行为产生负向作用。.本项目研究成果具有一定的理论价值，同时又具有较为广泛的实践价值，为航空公司识别、筛选、优化风险型飞行员提供方法基础，为从实践干预角度降低飞行员风险提供有效的理论和实证依据，对航空公司进一步开展人因风险防控、提高风险管理水平具有重要的现实意义。