极端灾害在产业网络中的扩散效应精细模拟与影响评估

The propagation of extreme disasters in industry network and induced indirect losses are attracting more and more attentions. Some econometric models, such as IO and CGE, are most used to simulate the propagation losses among multi-industry sectors or multi-regions, which less consider the impacts of individual firms and their link structure on the resilience of industry network, and fail to reveal the amplification process and mechanism of disaster risk from local critical nodes to the whole industry network. This study aims to establish models for disaster risk propagation simulation and indirect losses assessment from the perspective of complex interfirm transaction relations. Taking extreme storm surge floods in Yangtze delta as a hazard scenario and auto industry as a case, based on auto interfirm transaction data, we will construct a supply topological-geographical network at firm level. Using complex network models and GIS, we will systematically explore the topology and geography factors of supply network contributing to its resilience, dynamically simulate the spatial process of disaster propagation via supply network, and quantitatively assess the supply network disruption losses induced by disaster. It is expected to provide new ideas and methods for fine-scale disaster risk assessment in industry economy.

极端灾害在产业网络中的扩散效应及其造成的间接经济损失问题日益受到关注。现有的投入产出（IO）、可计算一般均衡（CGE）等宏观计量经济模型，主要用于模拟产业部门之间的灾害风险波及效应，没有考虑微观企业个体及其关联结构对产业网络韧性的影响，难以深入揭示灾害风险从局部关键节点扩散到整个产业网络的过程和机理。本研究从复杂企业供应关系的视角建立灾害风险扩散模拟方法和间接损失评估模型。以长三角地区极端风暴洪水为情景，以汽车产业为例，基于微观企业个体数据及其交易关系，构建精细尺度供应链拓扑网络和空间网络；利用复杂网络方法和GIS技术，系统分析拓扑结构和空间结构因素对供应链网络韧性的影响，动态、情景化模拟灾害风险依托供应链网络扩散的空间过程，定量评估灾害造成的供应链网络中断损失。预期为产业经济领域灾害风险的精细尺度研究提供新思路和方法。

深入理解产业网络脆弱性，情景化模拟灾害在产业网络扩散的动态过程、依赖路径与形成机理，是科学进行关键节点保护、网络结构优化、增强韧性并防范系统性风险的重要依据。同时，针对复杂产业网络，定量、合理评估灾害造成的直接和间接经济损失，是科学进行灾害风险计算、费用效益分析和空间应对的重要性基础工作。本项目以极端风暴洪水为情景，以长三角地区产业和企业为对象，开展了产业网络建模、灾害影响动态扩散过程模拟，以及间接损失评估等理论和实证研究。通过本项目研究，主要取得了以下成果：(1)建立了灾害影响从局部节点到宏观产业系统的扩散效应模拟方法；(2)建立了产业网络灾害直接和间接经济损失的多尺度集成评估方法；(3)建立了面向大尺度区域的灾害经济损失与风险评估方法；(4)揭示了产业暴露的时空格局、关联结构对灾害损失和风险的驱动机制。项目成果为灾害经济学、灾害风险分析等领域研究提供了思路、理论和方法参考，同时为合理进行滨海沿江地区防汛墙、挡潮闸等工程措施的成本-效益分析，以及实施有针对性的企业规划选址和弹性策略等提供依据。