桥梁网络在地震灾害下动态可靠度评估

The performance of bridge networks, as a typical traffic network composed by a number of bridges connected with a certain topology, subject to natural hazards, is of great significance for our society. The project aims to formulate a framework of dynamic reliability assessment for bridge networks under the seismic hazards, considering the time-variant available information relevant to their performance before, during and after the disaster. First, probabilistic analysis of typical bridges in China would be implemented within the performance-based earthquake engineering framework proposed by the PEER Center due to the uncertainties in the disaster and the bridge structures. Based on the probabilistic analysis, the correlation model would be identified for the bridge performance considering the influence of the hazard and the structural properties such as the bridge structure, the foundation, the material and the construction quality, etc. Finally, an efficient and reliable algorithm is proposed for the practice of the dynamic reliability analysis of large-scale networked systems to support the real-time (or quasi real-time) risk assessment and decision making.

桥梁网络是指由多座桥梁组成的、具有一定拓扑结构的交通网络系统。桥梁的安全以及网络的联通对于国计民生有着重要的意义。本项目致力于构建桥梁网络在遭受地震灾害前、灾害发生时和发生后三阶段信息不断变化下的动态可靠度评估的框架。首先，在美国太平洋地震工程研究中心基于性态的地震工程研究框架内确立典型桥梁结构在地震灾害下性态的概率模型；在此基础上，确立桥梁性态之间的相关模型。模型中将会考虑灾害以及桥梁属性（构造、基础形式、材料和建造年代等）的影响。最终实现能够实现高效、可靠计算的网络系统动态可靠度分析框架。研究成果将为桥梁网络的实时（或准实时）的风险评估和决策实践提供理论基础和技术支持，所构建的相关模型和网络系统可靠度分析框架也将对其它生命线工程以及大型建筑群的研究具有理论意义。

桥梁网络是指由多座桥梁组成的、具有一定拓扑结构的交通网络系统。桥梁的安全以及网络的联通对于国计民生有着重要的意义。本项目构建桥梁网络在遭受地震灾害前、灾害发生时和发生后三阶段信息不断变化下的动态可靠度评估的框架。首先，在美国太平洋地震工程研究中心基于性态的地震工程研究框架内确立典型桥梁结构在地震灾害下性态的概率模型；在此基础上，确立桥梁性态之间的相关模型。模型考虑了灾害以及桥梁结构属性（构造、基础形式、材料和建造年代等）的影响。最终实现能够实现高效、可靠计算的网络系统动态可靠度分析框架。研究成果为桥梁网络的实时（或准实时）的风险评估和决策实践提供理论基础和技术支持，所构建的相关模型和网络系统可靠度分析框架也对其它生命线工程以及城市大型建筑群的研究具有理论意义。