泥石流灾害实时可视化模拟与精细化风险评估方法

Debris flows are typical geomorphic spatiotemporal processes with hazard potential in mountainous areas and are trigged by intense rainfalls with landslides. The debris flows have some certain characteristics such as sudden occurrence, rapid expansion and emergency respond, which would bring hazard risks to people’s lives and properties. It is an important foundation for emergency management to implement numerical simulation and rapid risk analysis of debris flow disasters. In order to solve the problems of a low efficiency of numerical simulation and poor refinement of risk assessment, the method of real-time visual simulation and refined risk assessment of debris flow disasters are examined in-depth. First, by studying the methods of numerical simulation models construction and high performance computing parallel optimization, a parallel optimization calculation model of debris flow disasters under adaptive multiple grid cell sizes is conducted. Second, to realize the rapid and refined risk assessment of debris flow disasters in emergency situation, a qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis combined risk assessment model are constructed and a refined gridding method of disaster objects is studied to implement the rapid and refined risk assessment of debris flow disasters in an emergency situation. The research work can be used to simulate and predict the evolution process of debris flow disasters, improve the capability of emergency disposal and disaster prevention and reduction.

泥石流主要是由短时间内强降水引发的山体滑坡所致，具有发生突然、扩张迅速以及响应紧迫等特征，严重威胁着人民生命与财产安全，快速、准确的泥石流灾害演进过程模拟与风险评估是应急管理重要的基础。针对泥石流灾害数值模拟计算效率低、风险评估精细化程度不够等关键问题，本项目拟开展泥石流灾害实时可视化模拟与精细化风险评估方法研究。先通过研究不同格网尺度下泥石流灾害数值模型构建及高性能计算并行优化方法，进行自适应多级格网尺度下的泥石流灾害模拟并行优化计算；进而研究定性与定量结合的灾害风险评估模型及灾害风险对象精细空间格网化方法，实现应急情景下泥石流灾害快速精细化风险评估。本项目的研究成果可应用于泥石流灾害演进过程模拟与预测预警，提升泥石流灾害的应急处置与防灾减灾能力。

泥石流主要是由段时间内强降水引发的山体滑坡所致，具有发生突然、扩张迅速以及响应紧迫等特征，严重威胁着人民生命与财产安全，快速、准确的泥石流灾害演进过程模拟与风险评估是应急管理重要的基础。因此，本项目针对泥石流灾害数值模拟计算效率低、风险评估精细化程度不够等关键问题，开展了泥石流灾害实时可视化模拟与精细化风险评估方法研究。主要研究成果如下：1) 提出了多级格网尺度的泥石流灾害模拟并行优化算法，支持应急情景下泥石流灾害“实时”模拟与分析。 2) 构建了定性与定量结合的泥石流灾害快速风险评估模型，实现了对受灾区域的人口、道路、居民地等承载体精细空间量化评估。3) 在HTML5和WebGL技术支撑下，构建了面向泥石流灾害全过程的虚拟地理环境平台，支持泥石流灾害实时可视化模拟与精细化风险评估。研究成果可以直接用于泥石流灾害演进过程模拟与预测预警，极大提升泥石流灾害的应急处置与防灾减灾能力。