有限知识视角下农户技术采纳决策的动态仿真与实证研究

Agricultural technology innovation is the key to promoting the transformation of agricultural development and realizing the revitalization of rural areas. Farmers are the main actors of agricultural technology adoption, and their decision-making behavior is affected by the both economic factors and social factors. This project will construct a dynamic model of farmers' technology adoption decision based on the assumption of imperfect knowledge, and changes in farmers' technology cognition, dynamic decision-making process of farmers' technology adoption and their influencing factors will be examined using simulation and empirical methods. Firstly, based on the distribution and evolution process of village households in rural areas, combined with the data collected from farmers, the types of social networks constructed in farmer households' production activities and the interaction patterns will be studied and confirmed; secondly, the farmer household technology adoption decision model will be constructed based on the assumption of imperfect knowledge, and empirical study will be used to investigate the factors affecting farmers' technological cognition and the factors affecting technology adoption; Then, a dynamic simulation model will be built according to the type of farmers’ social network and the mode of their interactions, using agent-based modeling. Through simulation experiments and verification, the dynamic process of farmers' cognitive evolution and technology adoption decision-making across the periods will be examined; finally, starting from the research conclusions, combining existing agricultural technology extension systems, explore effective strategies for agricultural technology promotion for farmers.

农业技术革新是推动农业发展转型和实现乡村振兴的关键，农户作为农业技术采纳的主体，其决策行为受到经济和社会双重因素的影响，本项目将基于有限知识假设构建农户技术采纳决策的动态模型，以仿真和实证方法研究农户技术认知变化、农户技术采纳动态决策过程及其影响因素。首先，根据农村地区村落住户分布与演化历程，结合农户访谈数据，识别并确立农户生产活动中构建的社会网络类型以及互动模式；其次，基于有限知识假设构建农户技术采纳决策模型，通过计量实证研究，考察农户技术认知差异以及技术采纳决策的影响因素；然后，采用基于智能体建模的仿真方法，根据农户社会网络类型与互动模式构建农户技术采纳的动态仿真模型。通过仿真实验模拟与校验，解构农户跨时期的技术认知演化与技术采纳决策动态过程；最后，从研究结论出发，结合现有农业技术推广体系，探索面向农户的农业技术推广有效策略。

新型农业技术在农户群体中的有效推广是我国农业可持续发展的关键问题。本项目从有限知识视角采用实证和仿真相结合的研究方法考察农户社会网络因素、农户认知等因素对农户技术采纳决策的影响，动态分析农业技术扩散规律。.首先，根据前期案例村落农户调查，结合我国乡村社会演化历史特征，总结农户社会网络类型和基于人情往来的社会网络互动模式，研究了劳动力外流对这种互动模式的潜在影响；其次，基于有限知识构建农户技术采纳的理论模型，分步骤探究农户认知、社会网络关系、新兴短视频社交媒体参与等因素对农户技术采纳决策的影响，并评估新型农业技术对农地生产绩效的影响；再次，考察农户学习行为在农户技术采纳决策中的效应，并采用Agent-based Modeling（ABM）方法模拟农户新技术采纳的动态过程，研究了作物病害危机下农户技术采纳呈现的特征和新技术扩散在农户群体中扩散的规律。最后，基于上述研究提出面向农户层面的农业新技术推广策略。.研究结果：（1）农户基于地缘和血缘产生互动，构成特定的农户社会网络结构。人情往来是农户社会网络互动的重要支撑，劳动力外流会促发农户社会网络关系的变迁。（2）农户社会网络、技术认知显著影响农户采纳新型技术，且农户技术认知在两者之间发挥中介作用。农户社会网络中不同社会关系对农户技术采纳产生不同影响。新兴短视频社交媒体能促进农户采用新型技术。新技术或实践能够显著提升农业生产绩效。（3）学习行为能提高农民环境意识，从而促使其恰当处理农业废弃物。农业培训可以通过提高农民主动学习、社会交往和吸纳能力，促进其采纳新型技术。抗病新品种在农户群体中的扩散表现出“优先接触”效应，不同新品种在农户群体中的扩散收敛于区域性的“隔离”秩序，农户社会网络的互动距离和农户差异容忍度是产生该现象的影响因素。.本项目尝试在农户决策理论方面做出突破性研究，提出农户有限知识的研究范式，融合了ABM建模方法，为重新理解农户决策过程和推广新型农业技术提供启示。