连片特困地区农户在风险与多维贫困下的动态生计决策研究——基于行为经济学视角

The project proposes to use a randomized control trial with panel rural households in 5 provinces since 2010 to identify individual adaptive behavior under risk from perspectives of the neoclassical rural household decision theory and behavioral economics. The research aims to unveil micro-behavioral mechanism underlying macro policy. Theoretically, the project adopts the dynamic discrete choice model to describe rural households’ dynamic and recursive decision making across multi-dimensions of wellbeing. Empirically, a non-parametric approach is used to estimate rural households’ structural parameters such as preferences and expectation which are updated over time and control households’ decision making. The empirical model also identifies households’ adaptive strategies to different policy inferences and assesses the behavioral consequences on poverty in the long-term. The results will help improve poverty alleviation policy and provide its micro evidence in order to make policy compatible with poor rural households’ dynamic decision making.

本课题基于自2010年以来5省连片特困地区农户的动态面板随机控制实验，从新古典农业家庭理论和行为经济学相结合的视角，分析微观个体面对多维贫困及各种风险下的适应性行为决策，从而打开宏观政策影响的“微观机制”这一“黑匣子”。在理论上，本课题利用动态离散选择模型，构造贫困农户在多重风险下、在多个福利维度上，同时进行的动态递归的多维生计决策。在实证上，用非参数方法估计农户上述过程中不断更新的偏好、期望等控制其决策过程的结构系数；识别贫困农户在不同政策干预下实行的各种适应性策略；评估其带来的长期动态贫困变化。研究结果将为改进脱贫政策、使之与贫困农户动态行为决策相匹配提供微观依据。

本课题基于自2010年以来5省连片特困地区农户的动态面板随机控制实验，从新古典农业家庭理论和行为经济学相结合的视角，分析微观个体面对多维贫困及各种风险下的适应性行为决策，从而打开宏观政策影响的“微观机制”这一“黑匣子”。在理论上，本课题利用动态离散选择模型，构造贫困农户在多重风险下、在多个福利维度上，同时进行的动态递归的多维生计决策。在实证上，用非参数方法估计农户上述过程中不断更新的偏好、期望等控制其决策过程的结构系数；识别贫困农户在不同政策干预下实行的各种适应性策略；评估其带来的长期动态贫困变化。研究结果将为改进脱贫政策、使之与贫困农户动态行为决策相匹配提供微观依据。