基于潜变量混合增长模型的老年人整合式长期照护服务体验与满意度追踪评价研究

The integrated long-term care (LTC) services which combine the healthcare and pension services, would help to satisfy the increasing, multi-level and diversified demand of the elderly on healthy aging, and have become a new trend of international research on the response to population aging. In accordance with the latest national policy of promoting the healthcare and pension services integration, it is in urgent demand of establishing a services examination and evaluation system with main indicators such as the older adults' satisfaction, etc. Basing on the early research achievement, this project will focus on the older adults' experience of and satisfaction with integrated LTC services and try to get the following breakthroughs: (1) building a novel evaluation index system for the older adults' experience of and satisfaction with integrated LTC services, by adopting the mixed methods approach; (2) carrying out a longitudinal study on health services experience and satisfaction which is rare in domestic, and realizing the dynamic assessment and prediction for the policy implementation of promoting the healthcare and pension services integration and the quality of long-term care services, based on the client-perspective, by introducing in Latent Growth Mixture Model which is a cutting-edge longitudinal analysis technology; (3) through the model analysis, identifying the latent developmental classes of the older adults' experience of and satisfaction with integrated LTC services and their impact factors, exploring the ‘personalized’ optimal paths for integrated LTC services based on empirical evidence, thus further strengthening the directive function of service experience and satisfaction evaluation.

“医养结合”的整合式长期照护服务，有利于满足老年人日益增长的多层次、多样化的健康养老服务需求，并已成为国际上人口老龄化应对方面的研究新趋势。根据国家关于推进医养结合的最新政策要求，当前亟需建立以老年人满意度等为主要指标的服务考核评估体系。本项目通过前期研究，将问题聚焦于老年人对整合式长期照护服务的体验与满意度，力图获得以下突破：（1）采用混合方法路径，构建老年人整合式长期照护服务体验与满意度测评指标体系；（2）开展在国内尚不多的健康服务体验与满意度的纵向研究，并引入处于追踪数据分析技术前沿的潜变量混合增长模型，实现对医养结合政策效果和长期照护服务质量进行基于服务受众视角的动态评估与预测；（3）通过模型分析，阐明老年人整合式长期照护服务体验与满意度发展趋势的潜在分类及其影响因素，探寻基于经验证据的整合式长期照护服务的“个性化”优化路径，从而进一步发挥服务体验与满意度评价的指导作用。

“医养结合”的整合式长期照护服务，有利于满足老年人日益增长的多层次、多样化的健康养老服务需求。根据国家政策要求，当前亟需建立以老年人满意度等为主要指标的服务考核评估体系。本项目将问题聚焦于老年人对整合式长期照护服务的体验与满意度，主要获得了以下突破：（1）采用混合方法路径，构建了老年人整合式长期照护服务体验与满意度测评指标体系；（2）依托潜变量混合增长模型，实现了对医养结合政策效果和长期照护服务质量进行基于服务受众视角的动态评估与预测；（3）通过模型分析，阐明了老年人整合式长期照护服务体验与满意度发展趋势的潜在分类及其影响因素。研究目标顺利完成。已发表核心期刊论文12篇（其中CSSCI/CSCD检索期刊论文10篇），在国家一级出版社出版专著1本，所撰写的政策建议报告获民政部全国民政政策理论研究三等奖、被中共中央办公厅采用，参加国内外高水平学术会议和研修16次。目前，还有11-14篇成果待发表。本项目不仅是对国内外整合式长期照护质量监管理论和经验证据的有力补充，亦可为今后其他服务体验与满意度评价研究提供新的思路与方法。