人口老龄化、住房空置与房地产金融风险控制—基于异质空间DSGE模型分析

The issues that caused by the aging of population in China has been becoming increasingly obvious. This tendency, however, not only has a negative impact on China’s macro economy, but also becomes one of the critical factors for the economic development in China. After ten years of housing boom, the housing vacancy rate rises dramatically, which leads to an unhealthy and instable pace of development of Chinese real estate industry in recent years. Housing vacancy rate, the core indicator in measuring estate bubble, raises public concern, and it may, in some degree, be responsible for the potential financial risks in China. Under the background of economic slowdown of the adjustment period, where real estate market shrinks.This project aims at finding how aging population affect the housing vacancy, and moreover,.exploring the transmission mechanisms of housing vacancy to financial risks of real estate industry in detail, based on the research on geographic distribution of housing vacancy in the view of structural characteristics of first-tier, second-tier, third-tier and forth-tier cities.According to the chain effect mechanism, we will establish housing vacancy pre-warning index system and real estate financial risk pre-warning system, on the foundation of spatial heterogeneity. Concerning the current environment of China, namely the market liberalization and de-administration, effective strategies will be presented to help deal with the housing vacancy, and control the real estate financial risk as population aging.

随着我国人口老龄化趋势越来越明显，其对宏观经济发展的负面影响也突显出来，成为影响未来我国经济发展的重要趋势之一。与此同时，在经历十年的住房市场繁荣之后，住房空置水平的不断高企也给房地产业持续稳定健康发展提出了重大难题，住房空置作为房地产泡沫的核心指标，所可能引发的金融风险成为各界都关注的重点。本项目以调整时期的经济整体下行和房地产市场趋缓为研究背景，在分析一二三四线城市住房空置的空间分化和结构特点的基础上，研究人口老龄化对住房空置的影响渠道，并进一步探索住房空置对房地产金融风险的传导机制。据此连锁反应机制，将建立起基于空间异质性的住房空置预警指标体系和房地产金融风险预警体系，并结合我国当前的市场化与去行政化的经济运行大环境，提出人口老龄化进程中应对住房空置和控制房地产金融风险的有效策略。

我国人口年龄结构的转变对房地产市场的供给与需求均产生一定冲击，并最终影响住房空置水平。高住房空置率以及房地产金融风险是当前国内经济运行所面临的重大挑战。本课题着重研究了人口老龄化、住房空置与房地产金融风险三者间的关系与作用机理，旨在探明在人口老龄化趋势不断深化的前提下，如何更好的应对老龄化对住房消费所带来的机遇与挑战以及防范房地产金融风险。研究发现，房价是人口老龄化影响住房空置的重要渠道，并在住房空置作用于房地产金融风险的链条中也发挥作用；老龄化不仅会通过直接影响住房消费，进而对住房空置产生影响，还会以房价和居民消费结构为中间渠道，对住房空置产生间接影响；我国房地产金融风险具有空间溢出特征，住房空置对显著促进房地产金融风险升高，有效的预警体系构建有助于实时监测房地产金融风险水平。