基于DSGE模型的房价波动研究与房地产调控政策效应模拟

The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is the most popular framework of the macro-economy modeling and policies evaluation. And its application in the field of real estate is one of the major breakthroughs of the DSGE models in recent years. However, the existing literature is generally limited to homogeneous households and closed-economy. Moreover, there is no enough attention paid to the simulation of the real estate regulatory policies. The project, by introducing heterogeneous households, foreign investors and the local government, sets up both closed economy and open economy DSGE models with real estate sector respectively. And the project will analyze the main factors that affect Chinese housing price, and then forecast as well as simulate the fluctuation trend of Chinese housing price. The project will also discuss the interactions between the housing price fluctuation and macro-economy in China. Furthermore, we will make the simulation on the Chinese regulatory policies on real estate sector. In the end, we want to provide some policy recommendations to promote stable and healthy development of Chinese real estate market.

动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）是当前宏观经济建模和政策评价的主流研究框架，并且其在房地产研究领域的应用为DSGE模型近年来的主要发展之一。但是现有文献一般局限于同质家庭、封闭经济的研究，并缺乏系统的房地产调控政策效应模拟分析。本项目研究拟以我国经济为背景，通过在现有包含房地产部门DSGE模型中引入异质家庭、地方政府、国外投资者等参与主体，分别构建包含房地产部门的封闭经济与开放经济DSGE模型，分析我国房价波动的影响因素，并对我国房价波动趋势进行预测和模拟，探讨房价波动与宏观经济之间的相互作用机制，并在此基础上对我国房地产调控政策效应进行模拟，最后提出促进我国房地产市场健康平稳发展的政策建议，为我国建立长效房地产调控机制提供一定理论依据和参考。

房地产市场对我国的经济发展起着非常重要的作用，已有研究从多个方面探讨了我国房地产市场波动的特征和原因。本课题在全面介绍房地产市场相关国内外研究的基础上，从我国房地产市场的非线性特征及一般均衡两个视角系统分析了影响我国房价波动的各种因素，同时基于理论分析和经验分析结果提出相应的房地产调控政策，为相关部门决策提供参考依据。主要工作和贡献如下：（1）基于马尔科夫区制转换模型分析了我国房地产市场的周期性特征，并探讨了货币政策在不同区制状态下对房地产波动的非对称影响；（2）基于门槛协整模型探讨了土地价格及一些宏观经济因素如货币、通胀水平及产出对我国房价的影响；（3）基于小波理论探讨了在不同时间尺度下，宏观经济因素货币、通胀水平及产出对房价的影响；（4）通过引入房地产部门，构建了包含房地产需求偏好冲击及货币政策冲击等多种随机冲击的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，探讨了房地产需求偏好冲击及货币政策冲击等多种随机冲击对我国房地产市场的影响。