城市（地震）应急避难场所区位选择研究——以南京市为例

It is necessary to plan and construct emergency shelters scientifically and reasonably for establishing urban comprehensive disaster prevention system and ensuring urban sustainable development, also it is one of the key issues in the academia. Firstly, the characteristics of urban earthquake disaster and its secondary disasters influence range are analyzed, and the relationship between the distribution and change of population and its influencing factors are dissected in the research, then the population density spatial model and growth model are established to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of refugee current and future under different seismic intensities. Secondly, the damage of main road sections in the adaptive regions under earthquake attracts our attention, and the reliability coefficient about road network system under different seismic intensity is calculated by using the reliability evaluation method of road section. Based on the location theory of public facilities and multiple objective programming method, considering the types, attributes and characteristics of urban emergency shelters, a complete set of multi-level and multi-objective location optimization models are constucted, which is suitable for different urban areas, such as the old town and the new city zone, multiple urban scales and different levels of refuge needs, by means of setting more perfect constraints and multiple reasonable objective functions. The model solution and expression rely on improved optimization algorithm and spatial analysis technique with GIS. Lastly but not least, the scientificity and validity, as well as the practice effect from calculating large-scale data of the above-mentioned models are demonstrate by empirical data of Nanjing, and then the spatial system for emergency shelters is produced. The related research results can provide scientific basis for the decision-making about the location of urban emergency shelters.

科学合理地布局应急避难场所是建立城市综合防灾体系、保障城市可持续发展的必然要求，是学术界致力解决的重点问题之一。分析城市地震灾害特点及次生灾害影响范围，人口分布、变动与其影响因子的相关性，建立人口密度空间化模型和数量增长模型，模拟不同地震烈度下当前及未来避难人口时空分布；重点研究抗震有条件适宜区域主要路段受损情况，采用道路单元可靠性评估方法，估算不同地震烈度下路网系统的抗震可靠度系数。基于公共设施区位理论和多目标规划方法，考虑应急避难场所的类型、属性和特点，通过设定更为完善的约束条件和多个合理的目标函数，构建一套完整的、契合城市不同区域、适合城市不同尺度、满足不同等级避难需求的应急避难场所区位模型，运用改进的优化算法和GIS技术实现模型求解与表达。利用南京市实证数据验证模型的科学性和有效性及其应用于大规模数据的实践效果，形成系统地城市应急避难场所空间体系，解决城市应急避难场所区位决策问题。

科学合理地布局应急避难场所是构建城市综合防灾体系、保障城市可持续发展的必然要求，更是学术界致力解决的重点问题之一。明确了应急避难场所区位研究的关键问题、关注重点和发展趋势；分析了南京市地震灾害特点及次生灾害影响范围，估算出不同设防烈度下避难人口总量；调研并落实主城人口密集区域社区界线，在剖析人口分布、变动与其影响因子的相关性，明晰影响人口时空分布关键因子（职住状况、土地利用、建筑高度、DEM等）及其作用机理的基础上，建立人口-昼夜分布空间关联，融合多源关键数据获得避难人口时空分布精细化模拟结果。通过调研、评估应急避难备选场地和主要道路及其两侧建筑物情况，建立了应急避难备选场地和路网系统数据库，采用随机森林模型评判不同设防烈度下道路的通行状况，估算出路网系统可靠性程度，作为应急避难场所区位模型求解的重要依据。考虑应急避难场所属性、类型和特点，基于公共设施区位理论和多目标规划方法，兼顾效率、公平与成本，通过设定更为完善的约束条件和多个合理的目标函数，构建出一套完整的、契合城市不同区域、适合城市不同尺度、满足不同等级避难需求的多尺度、多层级、多目标应急避难场所区位模型，并运用改进的优化算法和GIS技术实现了模型求解与结果表达。利用南京市实证数据，验证已构建模型的科学性、有效性及其应用于大规模区位选择的实践效果，最终形成系统地城市应急避难场所空间布局体系。从可达性、公平性和效率性三方面构建6个指标进行评价，结果表明区位选择方案均显著优于规划方案。相关研究成果的叠合，从理论基础、模型构建和算法实现三个方面，解决城市应急避难场所区位决策的理论与实践问题。所提出的以低等级避难场所选定设施点集与避难需求点集共同作为高一等级避难场所需求点集的做法，以及分三个阶段依次实现不同等级应急避难场所区位模型求解与应用的思路和方法，在国内外现有研究成果中尚未见到类似表述，具有一定的创新性和特色。