快速公交系统站点和乘客出行的时空可达性模拟研究

Short of accessibility anasylis, Bus Rapid Transit System (in short, BRT) faces some serious problems, which includes overcrowding in rushing hours, and too long waiting time, and inconvenience when entering station. These problems hurt people's willingness to travel by BRT greatly. The simulation of spatiotemporal accessibility of BRT is foundation of BRT's accessibility improvement; it has great significance for urban accessibility optimization. The spatiotemporal accessibility of BRT varies with station design and bus line design, and it changes when passenger's demand fluctuates. So its simulation will have great challenges and it will have great value in practice accordingly.. This proposal focuses on computational model of spatiotemporal accessibility of BRT, and their application in BRT planning and optimization. Firstly, to model spatiotemporal process of BRT and that of passager's travel separately. Secondly, to optimize computational methods of isochrone，and that of Space-Time Accessibility Benefits, and others, according to BRT. Thirdly, a new computational model of spatiotemporal accessibility is established, and with which the spatiotemporal accessibility of BRT can be simulated by integrating distribution model of traffic demands and planning model of bus lines. So the distribution of spatiotemporal accessibility of BRT can be calculated, and its changes according to station design, bus line varying, and bus frequency along with time, all above can serve as a basis of BRT planning and optimization. .In the meantime, the proposal will realize above algorithms and models, and develop a software system based on them. The system will be tested under experimental platform of real applications, and it will guarantee BRT planning to meet the requirements of urban mobility and humanization.

快速公交系统（BRT）规划建设缺少可达性分析，导致乘客进站不方便、高峰时段过于拥挤等突出问题，伤害了乘客公交出行的意愿。时空可达性模拟是提高BRT可达性的重要基础，对吸引人们公交出行意义重大。BRT时空可达性随着站点设计等因素不同而变化，又受乘客出行需求影响，其模拟具有很强的挑战性和实用价值。.本项目重点研究BRT的时空可达性计算模型及其在BRT规划中的应用。研究分别针对BRT运行过程和乘客出行过程进行分析建模，改进等时线法、时空-效用法等时空可达性计算方法，以建立高精度的时空可达性计算模型，将其与交通需求分配模型、公交线路规划模型相结合，实现BRT时空可达性的模拟，再通过实际交通调查和车辆GPS数据进行验证。最后分析不同时段下，BRT站点设计、线路设置等因素对BRT时空可达性的影响，探寻BRT时空可达性的分布变化规律，为BRT规划提供依据,并开发实用算法和系统应用于BRT规划。

时空可达性模拟是提高快速公交系统（BRT）可达性的重要基础，对吸引人们公交出行意义重大。BRT时空可达性随着站点设计等因素不同而变化，又受乘客出行需求的影响，其模拟具有很强的挑战性和实用价值。本项目重点研究BRT的时空可达性计算模型及其在规划中的应用。项目研究严格按照计划执行，先后完成了BRT及公交数据整理及建库、乘客公交出行OD估计、公交站点等时线计算和乘客BRT出行的时空效用计算，提出了BRT车辆站间行驶速度模拟的方法，实现了行程时间的模拟；同时深入到BRT站台布局里面，模拟了站台设施对进出客流的影响，为优化站台布局提供依据。理论模型完成后，对广州中山大道BRT（GBRT）和广州大道的公交系统进行了实证研究，论证了广州大道新建BRT的可行性及其站点布设方案。另外，将研究成果应用到新建地铁对区域可达性的影响上，对比分析了广州地铁开通前后广州浔峰洲地铁公交可达性的变化，并以此为依据，对浔峰洲的公交线路进行了规划。研究的重要结果有三个，首先是提出了时空立方体的索引方法并应用到时空数据建库和管理中，显著提高了时空数据查询和时空路径构建效率；其次是提出了一种公交等时线计算方法，将公交业务数据应用到等时线计算中，能够真实精细地反映居民公交出行可达性在各方向各区域的差异；第三是提出了使用蒙特卡罗-马尔科夫链（MCMC）分析和模拟BRT站间车速的方法，对现状BRT的车辆速度数据进行建模，为规划BRT的车速模拟和行程时间模拟提供了依据，提高了BRT规划方案的科学性和可达性。