基于乘客行为的山地城市公交系统运能资源时空协同配置研究——以贵阳市为例

To the characteristic of Spatial-temporal distribution to transit demand, the transit systems with more convenient and effective for the mountain city should be established to improve the quality of transit service, urgently. In this program, the rule of travel behavior to urban transit for the mountainous city is proposed by the theory of Systems Science and Traffic Behavior Science with the influence of orographic diversification to the travel behavior of passengers for Guiyang. The simulation models of the travel behavior and the analysis methods of spatial-temporal distribution to transit demand for the mountainous city are established. The allocation models of Spatial-temporal to transportation capacity for urban transit systems and the analysis methods of the coordinated match between the spatial-temporal distribution of passenger trips and the spatial-temporal allocation of transportation capacity resources to urban transit systems are proposed by Geographic Information System (GIS). The models and algorithms of the coordinated allocation to transit capacity resources for the mountainous city are proposed. The coordination mechanisms for different functional transit lines to the mountain city are explored. With the space–time cubes and the space–time paths of Time geography Science, the models and methods to the coordinated allocation of space–time to transportation capacity resources of transit systems for the mountainous city are established. The algorithms with stochastic simulation, local search and Meta-heuristics are designed for improving performance and efficiency of algorithms. The resources allocation of transportation capacity to urban transit systems for Guiyang is analyzed quantitatively with GIS software. The improvement recommendations for the transit problem to the resources allocation of transportation capacity to urban transit systems in Guiyang are presented with the achievement of theory research. This could provide decision supports for the design of transit systems and the management of transit operations in Guiyang.

为了满足山地城市公交出行需求时空分布特性，山地城市迫切需要建立更便捷、更具时效的公交系统，改善公交服务质量。本项目主要运用系统科学和交通行为学，以贵阳市为案例，考虑山地城市地形变化对乘客公交出行行为的影响，探索山地城市公交出行行为规律。建立山地城市乘客公交出行行为仿真模型，构建山地城市公交出行时空分布分析体系；提出基于地理信息系统（GIS）的城市公交系统运能时空配置综合测度模型，建立山地城市乘客出行时空分布和公交系统运能资源时空配置协调匹配分析体系；探索山地城市不同功能等级公交线路的协调机制，运用时间地理学的时空立方体和时空路径，构建山地城市公交系统运能资源时空协同配置模型和优化技术，给出改进算法，提升算法的性能和效率；以GIS为平台，开展贵阳市公交系统运能资源时空协同配置研究，对贵阳市公交系统运能配置所存在的问题提出改进建议，为贵阳市公交系统设计和运营管理提供决策支持。

首先，以贵阳市中心城区为研究区域，本项目探讨山地城市居民公交出行方式选择、居民小汽车拥有、居民电动汽车出行意愿的影响机理，分析了贵阳市公交出行和公交建设存在的问题并提出相应优化建议。建立了居民对建成环境、地形条件、出行态度/偏好、出行满意度的主观感知评价指标，获取居民在出行选择中的真实感知需求，本着“以人为本”的目标优化公共交通和建设友好型建成环境。本项目还采用SEM-Logit模型和分层分析法，识别山地城市居民公交出行幸福感的影响因素，探讨关注不同区划中建成环境影响的差异以及出行幸福感影响因素在不同群体的异质性。其次，以贵阳市中心城区老年人步行行为调查问卷与客观建成环境数据为基础，运用结构方程模型（SEM）与混合地理加权回归模型（MGWR）对老年人步行出行特征及其影响因素的内在联系做出分析，根据研究结果与实地调研提出相关建议。还利用梯度提升决策树构建老年人步行次数模型，以探究建成环境对老年人步行次数的非线性作用及阈值效应。然后，以典型的山地城市贵阳市中心城区为研究区域，在考虑地形影响下计算公交站点的实际服务范围，从公交系统纵向公平性理念视角出发，对其公交系统服务供给在老年人群体中分配的公平性进行评价研究。还采用潜能模型分析道路坡度及公交绕行对老年人公共交通可达性的影响，研究结果可为公交规划和城市公交运营管理部门优化公共交通服务系统提供科学参考。接着，以山地城市贵阳市中心城区为例，运用平均最近邻、核密度分析、标准差椭圆法、空间自相关分析、网格维数法对其医疗点的空间结构进行识别及影响机理探究。同时，针对山地城市公交线路，考虑公交系统的时空可达性，构建了山地城市公交系统运能资源时空协同配置模型和山地城市公交快线与接驳公交线路运能资源时空协同配置模型及其优化算法，针对山地城市大规模公交线路，探索了算法求解大规模公交线路运能时空协同配置的优化机制。