基于可靠性的综合客运枢纽内部大客流组织方法研究

Aimed to improve its operation reliability,safety and efficiency of a comprehensive passenger transport terminal,and based on the analysis of characteristics of high passenger flow and individual behavior,the subject plans to study the identification,control, pre-alarm and evacuation organization of high passenger flow under the situations that the space constructure and facilities layout of a comprehensive passenger transport terminal is fixed. A identify method of critical states of high passenger flow will be developed based on the reliabilty measurement model, and a multilevel control model of passenger flow will be established based on reliability redistribution. Meanwhile,the subject wants to propose the real-time monitoring and pre-alarming methods of passenger flow states,and to design the evacuation organization tactics of high passenger flow for different pre-alarm ranks. In the end, these above-described models and methods will be verified using simulation software independently developed. The achievements of this research may refer decision-making basis and method suplly to high passenger flow orgnization, operation reliability improvement, normal state management and emergency response of comprehensive passenger transport terminals.

本项目拟以提高综合客运枢纽运行安全性与可靠性、保障运营高效性为目标，基于大客流特征及个体行为机理分析，研究在综合客运枢纽空间结构及设施布局既定的情况下，常态大客流的识别、控制、预警以及疏散组织，提出基于可靠性测度模型的大客流临界状态识别方法，建立基于可靠性再分配的多级客流控制模型；提出客流状态的实时监测与预警方法，针对不同预警级别，进行大客流疏散组织策略设计，并利用自主开发的仿真软件进行有效性验证。研究成果可为综合客运枢纽大客流组织、运行可靠性改善、常态管理、突发事件响应提供决策依据和方法支持。

本项目以综合客运枢纽内部大客流特征分析与组织方法为研究主线，以提高综合客运枢纽运行安全性与可靠性、保障运营高效性为目标，基于客流特征、变化规律及个体行为机理分析，使用变点理论、系统工程理论、最优化方法、复杂网络理论与控制论等理论与方法，研究了在综合客运枢纽空间结构及设施布局既定的情况下，乘客满意度、客流高峰分段点的识别、预警以及行人疏散，建立了基于换乘枢纽满意度的结构方程模型，城市轨道列车发车间隔优化模型，综合交通枢纽中优化交通线路的接驳模型等等，在保证安全运营列车的条件下提高线路运营效率、减小交通压力、提高运营的可靠性。研究行人流线网络状态估计和预测方法，构建行人流微观仿真模型体系，使用机器学习算法等多种方法对交通流作出实时预测。研究成果可为综合客运枢纽大客流组织、运行可靠性改善、常态管理、突发事件相应提供决策依据和方法支持。