不确定决策中概率空间的多参照点效应机制探究

In the current era, the environment around us has become complex and unpredictable. Thus, both the public and academic community focus on how to deal with uncertainty and make efficient uncertain decisions. The key to make an uncertain decision is the estimation of ambiguous probability. Most previous researches have examined the characteristics of probability intervals. However, comprehensive knowledge of the spatial distribution of probability is overlooked. In this project, we explore the demarcation feature and effect mechanism of multi-reference points of probability space in uncertain decision by using the method of behavioral decision making and the paradigm of reference point. This research will be gradually carried out from three aspects which are the confirmation of multiple reference points in probability space, the characteristics of functional areas resulted from the demarcation of probability space, and the specificities of the distributed structure of these functional areas. Specifically, Study 1 focuses on the exploration of multi-reference points of probability space in uncertain decisions; Study 2 reveals the interval boundary effect of multiple reference points in probability space; Study 3 investigates the domain specificity and the group specificity of multi-reference points distribution in probabilistic space. By doing these studies, we intend to further explore the probabilistic mechanism in uncertain decision from the perspective of spatial distribution, to extend the application of reference point in probabilistic dimension, and to provide a practical guide for individuals and organizations to deal with uncertainty through the use of reference points.

当前时代，环境变得复杂且难以预测，如何应对不确定性并做出有效的不确定性决策成为大众与学界共同关注的焦点。不确定性决策的关键在于模糊概率的估计，已有研究大多关注概率区间段的特征探索，缺乏对概率空间分布的整体把握。本项目运用行为决策的研究方法和参照点的研究范式，探讨不确定决策概率空间的多参照点界分特性及效应机制。整个研究将从多参照点的确立、参照点界分概率空间所得功能区的特征、功能区分布结构的特异性三个方面逐层展开，具体而言：子研究1聚焦不确定决策中概率空间的多参照点探究；子研究2揭示概率空间中多参照点的区间界分效应；子研究3探索概率空间的多参照点分布的领域特异性与群体特异性。对这些内容的探讨，不仅从空间分布视角深化了对不确定性决策中概率机制的解读，延展了参照点在概率维度的运用，同时对帮助个体和组织如何运用参照点工具应对不确定性具有很强的实践指导意义。

时代的衍变使我们身处的环境变得越来越复杂与不可预测，不确定性成为常态。本项目运用行为决策的研究方法和参照点的研究范式探讨了不确定性环境下概率的多参照点效应机制，主要研究内容包括：（1）不确定性决策概率空间多参照点效应的表现与应用；（2）不确定性决策中概率空间多参照点效应的本质与神经机制；（3）不确定环境下概率参照点的管理助推。本项目超额完成项目任务书中的预期目标任务，在“行为决策”和“管理心理与行为”领域的学术期刊上发表9篇论文，其中：2篇中文CSSCI论文（管理心理领域权威期刊）；7篇SCI/SSCI论文，其中4篇Q2以上，3篇Q3以上（均为行为决策领域重要期刊）。出版学术专著1本《克服束手无策：化解不确定性的决策之道》（武汉大学出版社）。本项目综合多学科理论交叉，从行为表征-神经心理机制-管理助推三个层面，开展不确定性环境下概率的多参照点效应机制探究，推动了概率与参照相关理论的发展，同时采用了神经调控、神经同步、深度访谈、问卷调查、行为实验、情境实验、现场实验等多种研究方法，促进了多学科方法的交叉融合。