国土空间管制的外溢效应及调控原理研究—以武汉城市圈为例

Spatial planning is the basis for government to regulate land use,which is an important part of social regulation.However,there are spillover effects,disequilibrium of economic development and environmental protection between the related regions and stakeholders. Since the 1980s, researchers have focused on the effectiveness of the market and governmental forces regarding spatial planning. They especially focused on spillover effects and implicit price effects of regulatory constraints and spatial fragmentation,such as the leapfrog effect, rent seeking,the invariance effect and so on.We will evaluate spillover effects and the influence of welfare,explore the regulatory principles and realized condition of spatial planning.These researches are necessary and effective ways of actualizing the externality and eliminating the disequilibrium of spatial regulation.It will be useful for government to select the proper policies for regulatory innovation according to heterogeneity of regions,uncertainty of spillover effects and welfare influences. This project has several objectives. First,it aims to summarize the effective strategies which developed countries adopt to avoid spillover effects of spatial planning.It reveals the similarities and differences in the market, government,and service in the different patterns. It will analyze the patterns of spatial planning regulation under different management systems, and the management conditions of regulatory tools, institutional environment and incentive mechanism to run. Second, taking Wuhan Megalopolis' land use regulation as an example, we will use Hedonic Property Model,Spatial Panel Model and other techniques to analyze its economical and ecological effects,environmental spillover and the welfare changes of the target areas and stakeholders. The goal of this case study is to reveal the spillover effects and spatial distribution of land spatial planning.Third, basing on the game theory, we will formulate a regulation model for the distribution of benefits to achieve incentive compatibility,and reveal the inherent source and achievable conditions of balancing the spatial regulation.Lastly,according to the heterogeneity of planning areas and the uncertainties of spillover effects, we will explore the regulatory principles of spatial planning and select the suitable regulatory policies which combine the effects of market and government,fairness and efficiency.This analysis will consider income distribution, property rights, the construction of the tax system,the land market,ecological compensation and other variables.These results will reveal the internal logic,basic regularities and regulatory principles of spatial planning regulation which are necessary to achieve the relative equilibrium of related regulatory regions and stakeholders. It will help correct the biases of spatial planning tools, and provide a scientific basis for the governental policy decisions and the spatial planning implementation.

国土空间规划及方案实施可能带来区域间经济发展与生态保护的不平衡，存在相关主体福利分配及责权利承担的不均衡，探索政府与市场相结合的调控原理是实现管制外溢性内在化及消除上述不平衡的必然选择。以武汉城市圈为例，评估分区管制及规制工具给异质区域带来的经济外溢及生态效应，给农民等微观主体土地发展权及财产权带来的价格及寻租效应；衡量国土空间管制给多元主体带来的福利损益影响，根据参与主体的利益博弈方式、过程、行为和结果，构建实现激励相容为目标的利益分配规制模型，揭示国土空间管制相对均衡的内在根源及实现条件；针对规划区域的空间异质性、管制政策外溢效应及福利影响的不确定性，从收益分配、产权建设、税收制度、土地市场、生态补偿等方面探索政府与市场相结合的调控原理及基本法则。研究结果揭示空间管制相对均衡的内在根源、基本规律和调控原理，有助纠正管制模式及规制工具存在的成效偏差，为规划实施和政府决策及调控提供科学依据。

国土空间规划属政府社会性规制的重要范畴，有助纠正国土空间开发过程中存在的市场失灵现象。然而，国土规划管制具有不可避免的外溢效应，分区规划及土地用途管制带来区域间经济发展与生态保护的不平衡，存在管制强化地区与管理弱化地区农民土地发展权福利分配及责权利承担的不均衡。项目构建国土空间规划管制失灵的理论分析框架，揭示发展受限制下区域非均衡发展及相关利益群体福利损溢的制度缺陷，探索国土空间规划管制实现区域发展相对均衡的内在根源；以湖北省为典型实证，在测算国土空间规划管制强度及空间相关性的基础上，量化出国土空间管制对处于异质空间状态的规划区域（单元）的经济增长、产业集聚、地方财政等产生的外溢效应及影响因素，揭示规划管制给武汉城市圈异质的规划区域（单元）社会经济协调度所带来的分异特征及空间效应；实地调研湖北省武汉、黄冈、荆门、四川省成都、江苏省苏州城市近郊和远郊农民土地发展受限及住房财产持有状况，比较土地用途管制及空间规划对农民土地发展权所带来的影响程度及福利损益状况，评估大城市城中村拆迁改造、棚户区改造等房屋征收措施对农民土地财产持有所带来的影响，揭示空间规划管制对农民土地财产权所带来的溢出效应及福利影响；概括总结国际上消除空间管制外溢效应、促进区域均衡发展、多元主体利益分配公平采用的土地发展权移转、税费调节和地役权保护等政策工具及补偿策略的基本调控原理，分析这些激励性政策工具所存在的特征、缺陷及效力，探索与国土空间规划管制体系配套的跨区域财政移转支付及纵向农田生态补偿制度的调控原理和基本法则，为充分发挥市场和政府在国土空间高效利用方面的调节作用、促进区域协调均衡发展提供科学依据与政策建议，促进国土资源的高效利用及国土空间格局的优化配置。