市场竞争、不确定性与企业非效率投资- - 基于非效率投资确定方法的改进

This study focuses about the impact of product market competition, uncertainty on corporate investment inefficiency, and finally affects corporate performance by inefficiency investment. Different from the existing literatures on corporate inefficiency investment, this study would not analysis corporate investment in the view of agency conflict and government intervention, but from the perspective on corporate strategy, S-C-P paradigm in competition theory and the real option thoughts, to think about the important item in corporate governance external environment - - the impact of product market competition, uncertainty on corporate investment inefficiency. First of all, after synthesizing the existing methodology to confirm inefficiency investment, this study would adopt more robustness and richer means to confirm inefficiency investment, to make sure the identification of inefficiency investment behavior steady. Secondly, with recognition of the inefficiency investment behavior, this research would consider product market competition influence on corporate inefficiency investment, trying to get the empirical evidence on corporate strategy investment behavior. Then, considering the value of real options in corporate investment behavior, this study analyses whether uncertainty could cause underinvestment which is one kind of inefficiency investment, and probes the interaction mechanism between product market competition, uncertainty and inefficiency investment. Finally, considering the strategy investment and value of real option, this research would study influence of corporate inefficiency investment on corporate final performance.

本课题研究产品市场竞争、不确定性对公司非效率投资的影响，并通过非效率投资最终影响公司绩效。不同于现有公司非效率投资研究的视角，本课题不从代理冲突、政府干预角度考虑公司非效率投资行为，而是从公司战略、市场竞争中的S-C-P范式角度以及实物期权思想来考虑公司外部治理环境中重要因素：产品市场竞争、不确定性对公司非效率投资的影响。首先，在综合了现有确定非效率投资方法后，本课题采用更加稳健、更加丰富的手段来确认非效率投资，实现非效率投资行为识别的稳健性。接着，在确认非效率投资行为后，考虑产品市场竞争对非效率投资（投资过度或投资不足）的影响，找到公司进行战略投资的经验证据。然后，考虑公司投资行为的实物期权价值，分析不确定性是否会引起公司非效率投资（投资不足），并探索产品市场竞争、不确定性和企业非效率投资之间的互动机理。最后，在考虑战略投资、实物期权价值后，研究公司非效率投资行为对公司最终绩效的影响。

企业非效率投资问题是学界和业界关注的热点问题，然而由于计量方法限制，该问题无法衡量而关注不多。自从Richardson(2006)一文发表以后，企业非效率投资问题开始得到关注，并逐步丰富起来。已有研究，较多关注经理私利式的代理冲突对企业非效率投资的影响，忽视了市场竞争等为代表的外部环境对企业行为的作用。还有的从政府干预——这一政治不确定性角度研究了其对企业非效率投资的影响，然而忽视了其它不确定性因素，如环境不确定性、现金流不确定性等对企业非效率投资的影响。本课题从市场竞争、不确定性角度研究企业非效率投资行为，且分析企业非效率投资的经济后果。此外，我们还考虑其它宏观因素因素如最近兴起的社会资本对企业投资、非效率投资行为的影响。我们预期本课题研究成果既可以丰富现有关于企业非效率投资的研究，为现阶段企业非效率投资行为提供理论解释，又可以指导未来企业投资决策优化，甚至对于当前“去产能”等宏观决策提供有力的证据支持和政策建议。