中国城市收缩的空间格局与演化机理研究

Urban shrinkage is sweeping over the world, which caused a range of city sustainable development problems. Recently, China has entered into a period of new normal and faced the supply side reform, while shrinking has also emerged in some cities and regions. As one of the major challenges that China may confront in the new urbanization, urban shrinkage should be regarded as an important issue and concerned by urban geographers. Based on the reconstruction influences on urban dynamics that fueled by international and domestic social-environment changes, this research will review the research scheme and basic evolution rules of shrinking cities through the international literature and construct a research framework in a Chinese context. Multi-source data that covering statistical data, field survey data and geographical big data are included, combined with quantitative analysis, spatial-temporal mining method, system dynamic model and scenario analysis, this research will define and evaluate the shrinkage patterns and local trajectories in Chinese cities. Specifically, a number of dynamic factors will be identified and the complex coupling mechanism of urban shrinkage process will be revealed. Besides, we will predict and simulate the urban social economic development and land use pattern under different shrinking scenarios. Finally, some sustainable development paths for different shrinking cities will be investigated. This research aim to broaden and deepen theory of urban evolution and development in geography. Moreover, empirical results will also propose policy implications on both scientific decision for urban shrinkage process and urban sustainable development.

收缩正成为“新常态”席卷全球，引发一系列城市可持续发展问题。随着新常态和供给侧改革的来临，局部收缩也开始在我国部分城市区域显现。城市收缩是未来中国新型城镇化面临的挑战之一，也是城市地理学者亟需关注和研究的新命题。立足于国际国内社会环境变化对城市发展动力的重构影响，项目以地理学视角为切入点，通过对国际收缩城市研究脉络和演进规律的梳理，构建符合中国国情的城市收缩研究框架，综合利用统计、野外调查和地理大数据等多源数据并结合计量分析、时空挖掘、系统动力学模型和情景模拟等技术方法科学界定并综合评价中国收缩城市的空间分布和演化类型特征，识别我国城市收缩的相关动因并揭示收缩过程的复杂耦合机理，预测模拟不同收缩情景下城市社会经济发展与土地利用格局，提出不同类型收缩城市的可持续发展路径。研究旨在拓展和深化地理学中城市发展演化的相关理论，并为未来收缩过程的科学决策和新常态下城市可持续发展提供理论支撑和依据。

近10年来，随着全球发展格局变化及我国经济发展进入新常态，我国城市发展正面临着内外部条件的系统性重构与结构性变化，增长模式主导的城镇化逻辑已无以为继，局部收缩作为城市化的另一面已经在我国国土空间初见端倪，在迈进“以人为本”并注重高质量发展的城镇化后半程，传统的增长模式主已不再适用，我国的城市发展迎来了后增长时代。本研究系统研究了2000年以来我国城市的增长与收缩的分化特征与格局，识别了主要的收缩型城市及其类型差异，辨识了收缩城市与城市收缩的差异；其次，研究提出了全球化和地方化相互作用下的城市收缩过程及其机制的分析框架，并探索了网络联系、能源消耗、碳排放等相关因素与城市收缩的作用关系；最后通过典型案例城市的研究，提出了在收缩背景下未来中小城市可持续发展的可能路径。研究拓展和深化了地理学中城市发展演化的相关理论，并为收缩过程的科学决策和新常态下城市可持续发展提供理论支撑和依据。研究共发表科学论文22篇（其中SCI/SSCI论文8篇），被国家相关部委采纳的建议报告3份，被国家发改委采纳发文实施2份，成果有力的支撑了中小型收缩城市的可持续发展和规划管理。