面向灾害损失快速评估的非常规突发事件区域模型构建研究

Unconventional emergencies that often lead to secondary incidents have serious consequences. Assessing disaster losses quickly and effectively is of great significance to the timely start of the appropriate level of emergency response and the deployment of emergency resources in the case of incomplete information and pressing time. Unconventional emergencies could be any type of incidents, occur in arbitrary regions, therefore it's hard to assess disaster losses rapidly. Facing these challenges, this project focuses on constructing region models that reflect the characteristics of disaster losses, on the basis, a disaster losses evaluation framework is proposed through assessing the environmental similarity of region where emergency occurred. The key point of the research is describing the feature of region where emergency occurred from the angle of assessing disaster losses. Disaster system theory indicates that losses are embodied by hazard-affected bodies, so this project classifies disaster losses into two types: losses caused by the emergency itself and by its secondary incidents, then researches into the region feature which leads to the disaster losses separately. This project explores the types and measurement of hazard-affected bodies through incidents, then works over the relationships among hazard-affected bodies and their measurements through chain-reaction mechanism of incidents, on the basis of these research, finally constructs region model. The research contents include: identification of hazard-affected bodies that the main emergencies affect; study on the features of relationships among hazard-affected bodies based on chain-reaction mechanism of emergencies; construction of region model based on hazard-affected bodies and their relationships; research on feature of region model and assessing similarity between region models; research on the constructing process of specific region model and case study. The results of this research will provide decision support for quickly and accurately assessing disaster losses and determining the emergency response level.

非常规突发事件灾害后果严重，往往引发次生事件。在信息不全、时间紧迫的情况下，快速地评估灾害损失，对于尽快启动相应级别的应急响应、调配救援资源具有重要的意义。非常规突发事件可以是任意类型的事件、可能发生在任何区域，快速评估灾害损失非常困难。本项目提出构建反映灾害损失特征的区域模型，通过度量突发事件发生区域环境的相似性类比灾害损失的快速评估思路。研究重点在于从评估灾害损失的角度描述突发事件发生区域的特征。灾害系统论研究表明灾情是由承灾体体现的，本项目将灾害损失分为突发事件本身的灾害损失及其引发的次生灾害损失，分别研究引发二者的区域特征。通过突发事件研究承灾体的种类及其度量，通过突发事件连锁反应机理研究承灾体之间的关联及其度量，在此基础上构建区域模型。主要研究内容包括：各类主要突发事件的承灾体辨识；基于突发事件连锁反应机理的承灾体关联特征研究；基于承灾体及其关联的区域模型构建研究；区域模型特征及相似性评估研究；具体突发事件区域模型构建流程及案例研究。研究成果可以为快速评估灾害损失、判断应急响应级别提供决策支持。

非常规突发事件种类繁多，可能发生在任何区域，评估灾害损失非常困难。本课题以承灾体为核心，展开了面向灾害损失风险评估的突发事件区域模型构建研究：1）典型突发事件灾害损失的研究：研究了各类典型自然灾害损失的统计方法，确定了各突发事件的承灾体类型，明确了承灾体及其受损模式在区域灾害损失形成过程中的作用机理；2）典型承灾体的区域特征研究：确定了典型突发事件中的关键承灾体：人、建筑、重大危险源、基础设施，分别研究其灾害损失的区域特征；以土地利用类型为切入点，研究了土地利用类型与承灾体的分布关系特点；对于点状承灾体，构建了人口时空分布模型、建筑物功能-结构分布矩阵，得到了重大危险源分布模式；对于管网状承灾体，发现了不同尺度下的区域关键基础设施层次性特征；3）区域承灾体关联模式的研究：结合连锁反应案例，研究了各承灾体之间的多种关联模式，明确了基于承灾体关联的灾害后果演化机理；建立了承灾体关联的区域特征指标，提出了基于灰色关联理论确定各类承灾体之间关联程度的方法；针对关键基础设施，分别构建了功能关联与地理关联模型，以及基于层次结构的关联模型；4）突发事件区域模型构建及应用研究：从复杂网络、指标体系、灾害演化动力学等角度，研究了突发事件区域模型的构建方法，给出了度量区域灾害损失风险的方法，并继而评估不同区域灾害损失风险的相似性程度；研究了应对灾害后果演化的突发事件响应流程及策略；5）针对典型突发事件的理论及实证研究：分别构建了地震后果演化模型、区域事故灾难连锁反应模型、化工厂爆炸多米诺风险模型、关键基础设施级联失效模型、火灾扩散模型、传染病扩散模型、网络舆情演化模型等理论模型；并针对汶川地震灾害后果、城市重大危险源泄漏扩散、网络舆情事件的社会脆弱性、城市生命线自然灾害脆弱性等进行了实证研究。研究成果可以结合具体区域特征，评估灾害的损失风险，为区域突发事件风险防范及应对提供理论依据和决策支持。