面向非常规突发事件应急预案论证的仿真推演与评估方法研究

It is difficult to forecast the eruption of the untraditional emergency events in present technology level, so that the valid and lookahead emergency plans of preparedness are cried for us to reduce the disaster damage as far as it possible.It is important to develop the preparedness plans with look-ahead and robust to reduce the abrupt disaster damage under the severe treat from the untraditional emergency event. There are two main challenges unfit to demonstrate the preparedness plans. The first one is absence of the theoretical supporting of simulation means, especially absence of the process mechanism of the emergency response. The second challenge is the lack of the robust evaluation method. It is difficult to describe the different evaluation information including simulation and experts' information to fuse into comprehensive evaluation value. Aiming at the former challenge, an extensive framework based on OODA loop is put up to analyze the emergency response process, and a process mechanism model is built up based on DEVS. A set of virtual simulation systems are developed in HLA/RTI and STAGE software. What's more, a demonstration method in war-game is put up to deal with the difficulty in situation awareness and decision expression. To measure the simulation data credibility, a comprehensive method based on D-S evidence theory is developed to evaluation the data credibility degree. Pointing to second challenge, we firstly describe the emergency response effectiveness, and then standardize the different data from simulation and experts by means of the Belief map expression method, and fuse the above different information into the comprehensive effectiveness based on the extensive Bayesian method. By means of the simulation and evaluation methods, an untraditional emergency such as a strong earthquake disaster is taken as a simulation scenario to demonstrate the emergency preparedness plans.

当前技术无法预测非常规突发灾害发生，迫切需要发展论证有前瞻性及可靠的预案以备救灾减灾之用。当前应急预案论证面临两大问题：一是缺乏仿真论证手段的理论基础支持，如应急响应过程机理及其理论模型薄弱；二是缺乏一套可融合应急仿真数据、专家经验等不同信息源的应急预案稳健评估方法。针对问题一，先剖析突发事件应急过程机理，构建基于决策环的应急响应过程可扩展框架，建立应急过程仿真机理的形式化模型及仿真器。基于HLA/RTI及STAGE技术构建虚拟应急仿真平台，考虑应急策略谋划及感知难题，提出基于兵棋的应急推演方法。建立基于D-S证据理论的应急仿真数据可信度评测方法。针对后问题二，提出应急效能概念及效能评估指标体系，借助应急仿真推演采集评估数据。通过信念图表达法规范化仿真推演、专家判断等不同信息，基于扩展贝叶斯算法聚合应急预案的综合效能并。以特大突发地震应急为例，对多种应急处置预案展开仿真推演及效能论证。

当前人类仍不时遭受到来自自然灾害、人为恐怖活动以及其他非常规突发事件的威胁，故发展具有前瞻及可靠的应急预案以备防灾减灾之用很有必要。根据分析，主要缺乏有效的应急机理剖析理论基础，以及可靠的多源信息支撑的应急预案稳健评估方法。本研究从突发事件应急过程机理加以剖析，提出了一套基于OODA环的应急预案论证框架，分别对单一OODA环和复合OODA环支持的应急机理展开分析，并借助DEVS形式化描述方法对非常规突发事件应急响应过程进行理论建模。结合应急过程仿真推演系统相关研究，设计了应急单元模型的仿真引擎。在仿真信息的采集手段上，建立了基于HLA/RTI及STAGE技术的分布交互式虚拟应急仿真体系架构，并进行灾害过程模型的逼真模拟及分析解算。在虚拟仿真方面，构建大量的支持应急过程三维仿真的模型包括城市道路交通，行人和车辆，火灾与爆炸等；在交互仿真上，结合分布交互技术，对受灾人群的疏散引导规律予以剖析。.借助非常规突发事件的应急过程机理进行建模仿真想定，前瞻性的探索应急策略面对不确定情况的效能。利用仿真方法采集灾害应急能力的数据，利用兵棋推演技术对应急预案的指挥引导及策略进行推演，以提高应急指挥者在应急策略谋划及态势感知上经验缺乏的难题，并取得在该领域宝贵的推演信息。.证据理论的应急预案过程仿真数据的可信度校验方法，通过可信的仿真信息提高评估的可信度。对应急预案的综合评估，通过信念图表达法对定性数据进行规范化，对不同来源的仿真推演信息、专家判断和经验信息，借助扩展贝叶斯算法进行聚合评估，优选出合理可靠的应急预案。最后以应急预案效能的仿真推演及综合评估案例论证了多种应急预案的效能优劣，提高了应急管理的响应能力。