价格随机条件下多因素扰动的应急供应链协调机制研究

On the premise of the market price being random, The project considers disturbance factors like information asymmetry and participants’ risk aversion, taking revenue sharing contract and quantity flexibility contract as tools, then explores the inherent law and evolution mechanism of the emergency supply chain being coordinated to respond to unexpected incidents through wholesale price adjustment and optimal order and procurement mechanism with the utilization of both theoretical and experimental methods . First, we model the two contracts by using the principal-agent model and "profit -CVaR" model under the condition of information asymmetry and risk aversion disturb alone and simultaneously, respectively, then solutions to them are found through envelope theorem, whose correctness is verified by numerical examples; Second, based on above research, we also analyze the influence of different contracts under same constraints on supply chain coordination and optimization, which provides the scientific basis for choosing the right contract type; At last , we adopt experimental economics method for experiment, then compares the experimental results with theoretical ones , and revised the latter, which will guide practice eventually. Overall, the research conclusions reveal the inherent law of multi-factor disturbance’s influence on emergency supply chain coordination and optimization mechanism from theoretical angle and experimental angle. Expected results are of great importance to perfecting and enriching the theory and methods of emergency supply chain management gradually, also to improving supply chain management level.

本项目以市场价格随机为前提，考虑信息不对称和参与者风险厌恶等扰动因素，以收益共享契约和数量弹性契约为工具，采用理论与实验两种手段，通过批发价调整和最优订货采购机制，探寻了供应链协调应对突发事件的内在规律和演化机制。先考虑信息不对称和风险厌恶两种因素单独扰动，再考虑两种因素同时扰动，利用委托-代理模型和“利润-CVaR”模型对两种契约建模，然后用包络定理进行求解，并通过算例仿真验证理论值的正确性；在此基础上分析不同契约在相同的约束条件下对供应链优化协调的影响，为选择恰当的契约类型提供科学依据；最后应用实验经济学方法对上述模型进行实验，将实验结果与理论结果进行对比，再对理论模型进行修正，最终将修正后的理论模型应用于实践。研究结论将从理论与实验两个角度揭示多因素干扰对应急供应链优化协调机制影响的内在规律。预期成果对于逐步完善和丰富应急供应链管理理论与方法，提高供应链应急管理水平具有重要意义。

项目以市场价格随机为前提，考虑信息不对称和参与者风险厌恶等扰动因素，以收益共享契约、回购契约、数量折扣契约和数量弹性契约为工具，采用理论与仿真两种手段，通过批发价调整和最优订货采购机制，探寻了供应链协调应对突发事件的内在规律和演化机制。先考虑信息不对称和风险厌恶两种因素单独扰动，再考虑两种因素同时扰动，利用委托-代理模型和“利润-CVaR”模型对两种契约建模，然后用包络定理进行求解，并通过算例仿真验证理论值的正确性；在此基础上分析不同契约在相同的约束条件下对供应链优化协调的影响，为选择恰当的契约类型提供科学依据 ；研究结论揭示多因素干扰对应急供应链优化协调机制影响的内在规律。同时还将数量折扣契约与期权契约、回购契约与拍卖机制相结合展开了研究，这些研究成果对于逐步完善和丰富应急供应链管理理论与方法，提高供应链应急管理水平具有重要意义。