价格规制下跨区域电煤供应链动态协调机制研究

In recent years, the conflict between coal and electricity has become increasingly prominent. The existing studies recognize that the main cause of the conflict is due to the lateral dual-pricing system of coal and the vertical dual-pricing system of coal and electricity under price regulations. This research takes the vertical and horizontal conflicts caused by government regulations into consideration, works on the dynamic coordination mechanism of inter-regional power coal supply chain based on seasonal demand fluctuations of coal, in order to achieve the "win-win" situation of the whole power coal supply chain and the balance between electricity supply and demand, Then, this study evaluates the reasonableness and effectiveness of price regulations and offers management suggestions accordingly. This research works on the dynamic coordination mechanism of two level power coal supply chain combining the Coal Company and Power Company by using the inter-regional model of direct mining and direct supply, and then explores the relationship between allocation capacity and power coal price, as well as the dynamic coordination mechanism of three level power coal supply chain involved with TPL system. This study integrates theories of operations research, game theory, probability theory, conflict theory, logistics and supply chain management theory to get the dynamic coordination mechanism of inter-regional power coal supply chain to deal with the horizontal and vertical conflicts caused by price regulation, which will offer decision-making and theoretical support for the operation of the power coal supply chain, as well as the evaluation of government regulation.

近年来中国电煤供应紧张现象日显突出，研究认为其根源在于电煤和电力价格规制下的价格双轨制，而对于价格双轨制下供应链协调机制以及价格规制合理性评价等方面的研究主要以定性分析为主。本项目基于煤炭需求的季节性波动，研究跨区域电煤供应链动态协调机制，以克服价格双轨制冲突和物流能力制约，实现电煤稳定供应。首先分别研究跨区域直采和直供模式下，煤炭企业、电力企业组成的两级电煤供应链动态协调机制，然后引入TPL系统，分别研究运力分配是否与电煤价格关联的情形下，三级电煤供应链动态协调机制。综合运用冲突理论、博弈论、随机优化、动态规划等构建理论模型，运用解析式方法、智能算法和计算机仿真相结合进行决策分析，以期得到价格规制下电煤供应链动态协调机制设计和价格规制合理性评价的理论和方法，可以完善能源供应链优化、供应链中政府引导机制、供应链动态协调等相关理论研究，为制定合理的政府规制，协调电煤供应链运作提供决策依据。

近年来中国电煤供应紧张现象日显突出，研究认为其根源在于电煤和电力价格规制下的价格双轨制。本项目基于煤炭需求的季节性波动，研究跨区域电煤供应链动态协调机制，以克服价格双轨制冲突和物流能力制约，实现电煤稳定供应。. 首先，在分析两级生产与需求不确定性的统计特征的基础上，研究煤炭供应链优化运作、协调及应急均衡供应问题，提高煤炭企业供应链的效益，并实现煤炭均衡供应。. 考虑电力需求的不确定性、电煤和电力的价格规制，并分别考虑煤炭直供和直采两种模式，在煤炭运输无约束和煤炭运输制约两种情景下，构建博弈模型，研究我国煤电供应矛盾和煤电冲突的机理。. 设计带有电煤供应短缺惩罚措施的电煤供应的长期契约，并通过随机博弈模型的构建与求解，结合算例分析，得出以下结论：在电煤供应长期协调契约下，由于实现了电煤价格稳定，“煤电价格倒挂”的矛盾得以缓解，电力企业订购电煤的积极性提高，电力供应短缺的概率显著降低。. 设计并构建电煤调峰储备机制，研究得出，调峰储备机制下，煤炭需求旺季煤炭企业电煤的意愿供应量明显提高，电力企业订购电煤和生产电力的积极性提高，电力供应短缺的风险降低。. 通过构建序贯博弈模型，研究双重价格规制下，三渠道煤电供应链的跨期风险共担协调机制。研究表明跨期风险共担机制，能够使得煤电供应链总利润达到集成决策时的利润水平。. 研究双重价格规制下，三渠道煤电供应链的数量折扣协调契约和模型。研究表明，煤电供应链数量折扣协调机制，能够提高煤炭企业和电力企业利润，使得煤电供应链总利润达到集中决策时的利润水平。. 以具有供应突发性中断风险的两个煤电供应链为研究对象，设计煤电供应链链间应急援助契约，运用逆向归纳法构建并求解链间应急援助机制下两煤电供应链序贯博弈模型。研究表明，链间应急援助机制能有效缓解煤炭供应突发性中断的风险。. 研究由煤炭企业、TPL系统、电力企业组成的三级电煤供应链系统，构建TPL系统为主导方的电煤供应链动态序贯博弈模型，研究表明，当运力分配和物流价格与旺季电煤订单满足率和电煤价格挂钩时，能够有效解决旺季电煤价格过高和电煤订单满足率不足和煤电价格倒挂的问题，促进电煤的均衡供应。. 本研究完善能源供应链优化、供应链中政府引导机制、供应链动态协调等相关理论研究，为制定合理的政府规制，协调电煤供应链运作提供决策依据。