考虑时变顾客基数的质保维修需求预测与备件库存管理研究

With the rapid development of technology, the quality and reliability of a product gradually become the major concerns of the customers. Under the highly competitive market, to guarantee a high survivability, firms should invest a huge amount of money in their warranty programs to provide a high-quality warranty service that improves the customer satisfaction and uplifts the profitability. To reduce the warranty logistics costs, firms need to accurately forecast the warranty repair demand and hence effectively manage the spare parts inventory. In this project, we focus on the product warranty logistics issues and propose the following three research problems: (1) when the impacts of customer behaviors in warranty claims and stochastic sales on the time-varying customer base are considered, how to obtain a general approach that can be used to forecast the aggregate warranty repair demand; (2) based on the aggregate warranty repair demand, how to implement the multi-phase spare parts inventory control strategy to save the warehouse costs; (3) based on the repair demand and the spare parts inventory, how to coordinate the repairmen to shorten the customer waiting time of the repair service. Our objective is to develop a theoretical support for the application and generalization of warranty logistics management. Therefore, with important practical meaning and potential application value, this project not only can significantly improve the firms’ after-sales services and the customer satisfaction, but also has a positive impact on the development of warranty logistics management theory.

随着科技的快速进步，顾客对产品的质量要求也逐渐提高，企业为确保在日益加剧的市场竞争中生存，必须在产品的质保服务上投入大量资金来提供优质服务，从而提高顾客满意度，创造更大的利润。为了降低相关物流成本，企业需要预测未来的维修需求并合理有效地管理备件库存。本项目围绕产品质保服务中的物流管理方面问题，开展以下三方面研究:（1）当时变顾客基数受到销售不确定性和顾客报修行为影响时，如何得到未来任意时间段内的累积质保维修需求的通用预测方法；（2）基于累积质保维修需求，如何对备件库存进行分阶段控制来节省仓储成本；（3）如何通过维修需求与备件库存来调配维修人员和缩短顾客的维修等待时间。本课题力求为质保维修服务中的物流管理在现实中的应用和推广提供理论支持，该研究不仅对提高企业的售后服务水平和顾客满意度具有重要的现实意义和应用价值，而且对推动产品质保服务物流理论的进一步发展也有积极作用。

本项目研究计划内容主要为考虑时变顾客基数的质保维修需求预测与备件库存管理问题，按照研究计划主要研究内容包括以下两大部分：1）时变顾客基数下的累积质保维修需求预测问题；2）质保维修服务的备件库存管理问题。项目研究严格按照计划内容执行，取得了预期的研究成果。在项目的资助下，项目组成员围绕着质保服务，在质量管理和收益管理领域进行了紧密相关的拓展研究，如质保产品质量检测与控制问题和产品质保策略、定价及广告决策问题。