基于函数型数据分析的鄱阳湖水资源短缺动态综合评价模型研究

For the influence of nature and human, the water resources shortage of Poyang Lake becomes more and more serious. In the water scarcities research on quantity and quality, the current literatures majorly make assessment based on the indices’ annual average values. However, the intra-annual temporal distributions of the water and contaminants in Poyang Lake are inhomogeneous. Therefore, the conventional models cannot recognize the water resources shortages in the drought period and the pollutant’s peak period. Furthermore, Poyang Lake has a distinctive ecological water scarcity problem, which is the shrinkage of the water surface area suitable for birds. Nevertheless, there is no mathematical model to assess it in current literatures. To solve these problems, this study will introduce the functional data analysis (FDA) theory into the water shortage research. Firstly, the dynamic water amount scarcity index and dynamic grey water footprint index is designed, which can represent the intra-annual variation processes of the amount-induced and pollution-induced water scarcities. And then, the dynamic ecological water scarcity index is proposed, which can assess the shrinkage of the water surface area suitable for birds. At last, the functional grey relational model is established, so as to make the dynamic comprehensive evaluation of the water shortage condition in Poyang Lake. This study has the following two innovations. (i) A dynamic water scarcity model is designed to represent its intra-annual variation processes for the first time. (ii) An ecological water scarcity index is proposed to assess the shrinkage of the water surface area suitable for birds for the first time.

在自然与人类的共同影响下，鄱阳湖的水量型缺水、水质型缺水和生态型缺水问题愈发突出。在水量型缺水与水质型缺水的研究中，现有模型均采用年均值算法进行评估。然而由于鄱阳湖径流量与污染负荷的年内分配不均匀，年均值算法无法准确评估枯水期和污染物峰值时期的水资源短缺情况。除此之外，适宜鸟类生存的水面萎缩是鄱阳湖特有的生态型缺水问题，而国内外对此仍缺乏定量化的评估模型。为解决这些问题，本研究将基于函数型数据分析技术，首先构建动态水量短缺指数和动态灰水足迹指数，从而对水量型缺水和水质型缺水的年内变化过程进行评价；而后提出动态生态水面短缺指数，从而对适宜鸟类生存的水面萎缩程度进行评估。在此基础上，进一步构建函数型灰关联评价模型，从而对鄱阳湖三类水资源短缺问题的年内变化过程进行动态综合评估。本研究的创新点是：首次提出量化水资源短缺程度年内变化过程的动态评价模型，和评估适宜鸟类生存水面萎缩程度的生态型缺水指数。

针对鄱阳湖的水量性缺水、水质性缺水和生态性缺水问题，本研究基于函数型数据分析理论，提出了水资源短缺动态综合评价方法。具体包括：（1）基于动态水位的水量性缺水函数，以量化由于径流年内分配不均匀而导致的水资源短缺年内变化过程。（2）基于CCME WQI函数、富营养化函数和重金属风险函数的水量性缺水函数，以量化由于污染负荷年内分配不均匀而导致的水质性缺水年内变化过程。（3）基于函数型灰关联分析的生态性缺水函数，以量化由于最小生态需水位不满足而导致的生态性缺水问题。（4）基于动态权重的水资源短缺函数，以量化鄱阳湖的综合型水资源短缺问题。.本研究的主要结论如下：（1）在1-5月，鄱阳湖的水资源短缺程度总体呈下降趋势，由“高”下降到“中”级，且制约因子为水量性缺水。（2）在6-8月，鄱阳湖的水资源短缺程度稳定在“低”级，且制约性因子为水质性缺水。（3）在9-11月，鄱阳湖的水资源短缺程度呈快速增加的趋势，且制约性因子为生态性缺水。（4）在12月，鄱阳湖的水资源短缺程度稳定在“高”级，且制约性因子为水量性缺水。（5）气候变化对鄱阳湖的水资源短缺影响极大，特别是极端高温和涝旱急转极易在短期内诱发水量性缺水和生态性缺水。（6）鄱阳湖水质性缺水的主要诱因为总磷、铜和镉，其中铜和镉的主要来源是德兴铜矿和贵溪冶炼厂。（7）熵权法在水资源短缺评价中具有失真性。.除鄱阳湖外，本课题构建的水资源短缺评价方法还在洞庭湖、太湖得到了推广应用，为当地的水资源管理与水环境保护提供科学依据。相关成果已发表科研论文20篇，取得专利2项，软件著作权1项，其中在Science of the Total Environment、Journal of Hydrology、Ecological Indicators、Water Resources Management等一区、二区SCI期刊发表论文7篇。