基于自底向上与自顶向下的低碳经济政策统筹分析及优化模型方法研究

Starting from the concept of low-carbon economic policy, this project comprehensive analyses and reveals the concept of low-carbon economic policies, draws emissions reduction causal chains of the policies and analyzes the role of the mechanism. Based on “bottom-up” cost-effectiveness evaluation method, we will study the low-carbon economic policies’ GHG emission reduction potential and cost-effectiveness from regional sectorial level. Based on the "top-down" CGE model macroeconomic policy analysis method, we will build the "bottom-up" and "top-down" links to the models, then research on the macroeconomic effects of low carbon economy policies from regional sectorial level. Based on multi-objective decision-making and planning methods, with constraint conditions of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity, deeply research on the area multi-sectorial low carbon economy policy optimization problems. We will form a method system of low carbon economy policy system, and apply it on China's low carbon pilot provinces or cities, establishing the mechanism of cost-benefit analysis evaluation theory and the theory of macroeconomic impact analysis of low carbon economy, in order to push forward the development of China's low carbon economy policy evaluation. On the basis of above, the project will put forward the policy action system to promote the development of China's green low carbon, to provide decision support for achieving carbon reduction targets in 2020 and subsequent making and adjustment of low carbon policies, form a new methods on the development of China's low carbon policy.

本项目从低碳经济政策概念出发，全面剖析低碳经济政策的概念，绘制可量化的低碳政策减排因果链，揭示其作用机理；基于微观“自底向上”的成本效益分析评估方法，研究部门（行业）层面的低碳经济政策的温室气体减排潜力及成本效益；基于“自顶向下”的CGE模型的宏观政策分析方法，构建“自底向上”与“自顶向下”的链接模型，研究部门（行业）层面的低碳经济政策的宏观经济影响；基于多目标决策及规划方法，在温室气体减排目标及碳排放强度等约束条件下，探讨多部门（行业）低碳经济政策的优化问题；形成一套低碳经济政策统筹分析方法体系，结合中国低碳试点省市实践进行应用，形成我国低碳经济政策的作用机理、成本效益分析理论、对宏观经济的影响理论，推动我国低碳经济政策评估与优化学科的发展；在此基础上提出促进中国绿色低碳发展的政策体系，为实现2020、2030年的碳减排目标的后续调整和低碳政策制定提供决策支持，形成中国低碳政策的新思路。

本研究全面剖析低碳经济政策的概念、内涵及作用机理，并且构建中国低碳政策框架；将微观“自底向上”的成本效益分析方法和“自顶向下”的基于CGE模型的宏观政策影响分析相结合，构建中国区域低碳经济政策统筹评估方法，从理论上形成一套低碳经济政策统筹分析方法体系。在应用层面上，结合中国低碳试点省市的政策实践，选择典型的东部广东省和西部重庆市进行从温室气体减排潜力、成本效益等多方面评估低碳经济政策预期效果，将各部门低碳政策分析结果与区域顶层设计目标对接。进一步在国家层面分析中国碳排放达峰分析和相关低碳技术和政策的成本效益分析，并结合东西部低碳试点省市低碳政策效果评估和中国国家层面的低碳政策和技术效果评估结果，提出我国低碳转型的对策建议，为我国实现中长期碳减排目标、后续政策制定和调整提供科学支撑和决策参考。