基于企业减排的森林碳汇需求形成机理与差异化政策研究

On the basis of reviewes and enlightenment from literatures on the status and tendency of the development of carbon trading market in all over the world, then choose Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei, Guangdong 4 provinces and cities among Chinese 7 carbon trading pilot provinces and cities as the case area and select the thermal power, chemical, steel as 3 representative industry with a carbon intensive emission, after making a large sample survey, this project will calculate the enterprises marginal carbon abatement cost and carbon shadow price in different industry based on the directional distance function. Then, using Faustmann-Hartman model and taking Cunninghamia lanceolata(Chinese fir) which is the representative forest species of the southern collective forest area as the case forest species, this project will calculate the quantity of the forest carbon sequestration that the enterprises will be able to purchase at this carbon shadow price. At the same carbon shadow price, this project will also calculate the quantity of the enterprises carbon emission reduction and carbon emission quota that the enterprises can purchase basd on Malquist index and random system limit theorem.With the comparison of the three carbon emission reduction path, the enterprises will form the decision whether purchase the forest carbon sequestration. Based on the above study results, this project will analyze the effect of government policy on the enterprises's demand decision of purchase the forest carbon sequestration, then, using the cloud computing model, this project will simulate and compare the policy variables among different industry when the forest carbon sequestration demand achieves maximum and give some differentiated policies suggestions to improve the forest carbon sequestration demand, so as to provide a basis for government departments to formulate relevant policies.

在系统梳理和分析国内外碳交易市场的发展现状与趋势基础上，以我国当前正在进行碳交易试点的7个省市中北京、上海、湖北、广东4个省市为案例区，选择火电、化工、钢铁3个碳排放密集型代表行业，基于大样本的实地调查数据，采用方向性距离函数计算出不同行业企业的碳边际减排成本和碳影子价格；然后选择中国南方集体林区的代表性树种（杉木），基于改进的Faustmann-Hartman模型计算出既定碳价格下企业所能购买到的森林碳汇量，同时基于Malquist指数和随机系统极限理论计算出相同碳价格下企业的自行减排量和能购买到的排放配额，并比较三者的数量关系，以最终形成是否购买森林碳汇的需求决策；进而分析政府相关政策因素对企业购买森林碳汇需求的影响，并采用云计算模型模拟比较不同行业企业购买森林碳汇需求最大化时的政策变量取值差异，提出促进不同行业企业购买森林碳汇需求的差异化政策建议，为政府部门制定相关政策提供依据。

本项目在系统梳理和分析国内外碳交易市场发展现状与趋势的基础上，基于大样本的实地调查数据和企业对不同减排路径的选择，运用系统极限理论和不确定条件下的积分算法，构建了企业对森林碳汇的需求决策模型，并以我国当前正在进行碳交易试点的7个省市中北京、上海、湖北、广东4个省市为案例区，选择火电、化工、钢铁3个碳排放密集型代表行业，按照各样本省市这3个行业目前参与自愿减排的数量比例，共计选取89家自愿接受碳减排的企业为案例，每个案例企业再具体调查31个具有独立投入-产出核算的能耗单位，总计2759个减排单位样本。通过计算样本减排单位自行技术减排成本，拟购买的森林碳汇项目供给成本，案例区减排配额的价格，进而考虑政府减排技术补贴与购买森林碳汇补贴两种不同补贴政策组合所构成的三种政策实施情景，模拟分析了样本减排单位在不同政策实施情景下对森林碳汇需求的决策过程。模拟结果表明：在当前无补贴政策的初始状态下，只有181个样本减排单位将选择购买森林碳汇减排，占比7%。如果政府单纯实施技术减排补贴政策，则当补贴提升至168元时，购买森林碳汇减排的减排单位数量将上升为332个，占比12%；反之，如果政府单纯实施碳汇减排补贴政策，则当补贴提升至168元时，购买森林碳汇减排的减排单位数量将上升为910个，占比33%；如果政府同时实施技术减排补贴和碳汇减排补贴政策，两种补贴都提升至168元时，购买森林碳汇减排的减排单位数量将上升为1683个，占比61%。本项目所提出的基于企业减排路径选择的森林碳汇需求决策模型为研究企业对森林碳汇需求的形成机理和评价政府不同的碳减排政策效应提供了一条新思路，为未来我国增汇减排战略的制订与实施提供了可资借鉴的方法。