创业机会的不确定性和合法独特性感知与动态创业意图的关系机理研究

Uncertainty constitutes a conceptual cornerstone for most theories of the entrepreneur, which would cause somebody to give up entrepreneurship when he perceives the entrepreneurial opportunity to be uncertain. The abilities of tolerance and accommodation to uncertainty, however, are the critical factors of entrepreneurial success. Entrepreneurship is a site of identity creation and interpretation, and the entrepreneurial opportunity should be complied with and constrained by some standards already formed, while at the same time be embodied entrepreneurial value through certain distinctiveness. Most of the literatures about entrepreneurial intentions researched on the influences of individual factors, ignored opportunity factors, and lack of the researches that combined of individual factors and opportunity factors especially. The project would utilize the research methods of theory building, multi-cases study and semi-experiment questionnaire, to explore the interaction, relationship and mechanism among perceived uncertainty and legitimate distinctiveness of entrepreneurial opportunity with dynamic entrepreneurial intention thoroughly on the basis of the comparison of the amount of uncertainty perceived and the willingness to bear uncertainty. The project would make a comparison research of the entrepreneurs and potential entrepreneurs, establish and validate the conceptual model among the perceived uncertainty, legitimate distinctiveness of entrepreneurial opportunity with dynamic entrepreneurial intention, combine individual factors and opportunity factors, and enrich the researches of antecedents and results of entrepreneurial intention.

不确定性是创业的核心，感知到的创业机会不确定性会导致某些个体放弃创业，但对不确定性的容忍和调节能力，是创业成功的决定性因素；创业也是身份创建和解释的过程，创业机会既应遵守并受到一些业已形成的标准约束，也要通过一定的独特性体现创业的价值。现有的创业意图文献主要考察企业家个人因素的影响，较少关注机会因素，更缺乏从个人因素和机会因素整合的视角研究创业意图的影响因素。本项目拟采用理论研究、多案例研究和半实验性质的问卷调查相结合的研究方法，在将不确定性区分为感知不确定性数量和承担不确定性意愿的基础上，对不同类型的企业家或潜在企业家感知创业机会的不确定性和合法独特性进行对比研究，结合创业机会识别和创业机会开发过程，深入挖掘创业机会的不确定性、合法独特性感知与动态创业意图的关系机理，构建并验证相关变量之间的理论模型，实现个人因素和机会因素的结合，进一步丰富创业意图前置因素及后置结果的研究。

不确定性是创业的核心。对不确定性的容忍和承担能力，是决定创业成功的关键因素，但创业机会的不确定性也会导致某些个体放弃创业。我国创业活动不断活跃，但与国外发达国家相比，我国创业行为仍存在一些独特性，比如参与创业活动的高学历的人员比例仍然偏少，因此如何增加个体或团体的创业意图，尤其是高学历者的创业意图，促进创业行为的发生是目前我国创业领域重点研究且亟需解决的问题。当前研究主要关注创业者个人因素和环境因素对创业意图的影响，但创业者对创业机会的感知也会与创业意图产生交互影响，尤其对创业机会的感知会对创业者的不确定性感知发挥作用，最终影响到创业意图。基于认知心理学理论、合法性理论、调节定向理论等相关研究，运用案例研究、半实验问卷调查等方法，从创业机会感知的视角审视创业意图的生成及动态演化过程。主要研究结论有：（1）创业匹配影响个体的不确定性感知，并最终影响创业机会识别，创业机会的识别机制是先前知识和外界信息的互补性匹配或结构性匹配，先前知识和外界信息的增补性匹配能够增加创业者的创业意图或对创业机会的确定性程度；（2）感知机会创新性与创业意图呈正相关，特质性调节定向调节感知机会创新性和创业意图之间的关系；（3）创业机会的创新性感知正向影响不确定性感知，创业机会的合法性感知负向影响不确定性感知，创业机会的不确定性感知与创业意图之间呈倒U型关系，创业机会的不确定性感知在创业机会的合法独特性感知与创业意图的关系之间起中介作用；（4）个体的创业经验通过创业自我效能为中介对创业机会开发产生正向影响，其中，创业意图调节创业经验与创业机会开发以创业自我效能为中介的间接关系，从而形成了被调节的中介效应模型；（5）生涯适应力正向影响兼职创业意图；工作不安全感、创业机会识别分别在生涯适应力与兼职创业意图之间起到部分中介作用。研究结论实现了个人因素和机会因素的结合，丰富了创业意图前置因素的研究。