区域科技创新景气指数构建的理论与方法研究

With the Regional Innovation System (RIS) concept becoming the basic analytical framework of the development of regional innovation policy, it promotes the index measure research of both academia and government on the innovation and development in the region. But nowadays a variety of regional innovation index is based on the innovative capacity and innovation performance index. There are the following shortcomings: lacking of dynamic and timeliness of broad indicators, lacking of characteristics of indicators. The guidence to technological innovation policy is not clear. The project is building scientific and technological innovation climate index based on the boom state. Theoretically, it studies the regional scientific and technological innovation climate index. Methodologically, it builds the analytical model of three-dimensional structure of the "Process-Structure-Timing" sentiment indicator (PST model). It studies the construction method and tool selection based on the composite index and the SW index of regional science and technology innovation index in terms of tools. In practice, it constructs a regional scientific and technological innovation index which is based on quarterly data measure. The research is aim to help formulating and adjusting the regional scientific technological innovation policy and configuration of the scientific and technological resources. It also compensates for the deficiencies of the studies measure scientific and technological innovation activities in the economy lagged behind the economic boom. It is of great significance for the changing pattern of economic development, promoting the construction of innovative country, and the developing of innovation-oriented city currently.

随着区域创新系统（RIS）概念成为制订区域创新政策的基础分析框架，推动了学术界和政府对区域创新发展状况的指数测度研究。但是目前的各种区域创新指数主要是基于创新能力和创新绩效构建的指数，存在如下缺陷：缺乏动态性和时效性，指标宽泛，特色指标缺乏，对科技创新政策的引导作用不强。本项目基于景气状态构建科技创新景气指数，从理论上，研究区域科技创新景气指数构建的理论基础；从方法上：构建 "过程－结构－时序"三维结构的景气指标分析模型（PST模型）；从工具上：研究基于合成指数与SW指数的区域科技创新指数构建方法与工具选择；从实践上：构建一套完整基于季度数据测度的区域科技创新景气指数。该研究有助于区域科技创新政策的制定、调整和科技资源的配置；有助于弥补在测度科技创新活动景气方面的研究落后于经济景气领域的不足。这对目前正处于促进经济发展方式转变、促进我国创新型国家、创新型城市的建设，具有重要的意义。

本课题以区域科技创新景气指数为研究对象，对区域科技创新景气指数构建的机理和测度方法进行了研究。具体研究内容聚焦在以下八个方面：1、研究了区域科技创新景气指数构建的理论基础，对区域科技创新活动的波动性和周期性问题进行了重点探讨； 2、构建了“过程—结构—时序”三维结构的区域科技创新景气指数指标筛选分析模型（PST模型）；3、研究了基于合成指数（CI）、扩散指数（DI）和SW模型的区域科技创新景气指数构建方法和工具体系；4、研究了区域科技创新景气指数预警信号灯系统；5、构建了基于五国（中国、美国、日本、法国和德国）、北京市和中国高校年度数据的区域科技创新景气指数，不同区域样本的研究结果验证了研究方法的可行性；6、在国内率先构建了基于季度数据的深圳南山科技创新景气指数；7、以深圳市企业为研究对象，连续开展了五年的企业科技创新景气问卷调查研究，作为区域科技创新景气指数研究的重要组成部分；8、基于区域科技创新景气指数研究内容拓展研究了区域科技创新驱动经济增长景气指数。