企业并购风险识别系统的研究

First of all, the study of the theory focuses on the merger & acquisition.basic theory and principle. It puts forward exploringly seven principles about the merger & acquisition of enterprise---Addition and Subtraction Principle of the enterprise’s Merger & Acquisition Value, Magnifying and Downsizing Principle of the Enterprise’s Value, Balance and Unbalance Principle of the enterprise’s energy,.Industry and Enterprise Life Cycle Interleaving Principle, Advantage Mutual Supplement Principle between the enterprises and Grafting Principle of the enterprise’s merger & acquisition. Enterprise’s merger & acquisition must be researched by the philosophy of wholism , which produces synergy as a course of organizational evolution..Secondly, systemic study has been made on the M&A risk and venture of the.enterprise. Three key characteristics of the appraise for the technical M & A and its risk have been brought forward----the absolute size of an acquired knowledge base,the relative size of an acquired knowledge base and the relatedness between an acquired knowledge base and an existent knowledge.A new Model “Knowledge –Capital -Certificate” (KCC) has been advanced to avoid the risk of executives or engineers resources in a merger or acquisition. It establishes Structure Index Model to appraise or discern the size of risk of a M&A for the macro-economics risk, it also provides several methods such as.Financial Index Analysis and Efficacy Coefficient for the enterprise strategic risk in a merger or acquisition.And then, it carries out the study of an Integrated Model for the venture discernment system in a merger & acquisition of enterprises. First, it designs the basic framework of the venture discernment system, studies out the process of the venture.discernment system and marks out the movement path of the venture discernment system, which spread a clear-out thoughtway for the paper step by step. Second, it sets up a mathematic model—Coherent Coefficient of integration which analyses.integration venture of M&A, reduces integration venture to six aspects, thirteen factors, and designs thirteen corresponding indexes. Then, it calculates out the coefficient of integrated appraisement by way of method of Fuzzy appraisement and.accurate value measurement. Third, it points out the study method for the calculation of “the Venture Stopping Coefficient” in a merger & acquisition. the ventures of M&A.in the process of M&A are analysed, reduced to five aspects, ten factors, ten corresponding indexes are designed and corresponding discernment methods are introduced. Then the synthetic evaluation model is set up by Fuzzy method and Accurate value measurement. The venture stopping coefficient is calculated by the model, and the calculation is evaluated. Apart from above methods, it also offers methods such as potential loss schedule and game theory ,etc. Finally, it sets up six practical appraisement models for the decision risk of M&A from the point of view-----Yield Rate, Failure Rate, Success Rate in the beginning and middle period,Supporting Rate of annexing and Opposing Rate of annexed enterprises, Mean Variance of M&A enterprise and Yield Expectation of M&A enterprise, etc.

本项目在调查当前企业并购风险研究内容的基础上，研究设计企业并购之前、并购过程和并购之后的风险识别系统，提出三个全新的风险识别指标：风险灵敏度、风险终止系数、整合一致性，并研制相应的决策支持系统，还对该系统作实证分析。其研究成果将为企业的战略性并购和发展提供理论指导，对丰富技术经济学中的风险研究和应用研究有所贡献。.