基于生态系统服务流的生态恢复工程多尺度效应整合评估方法与实证研究

Comprehensive understanding the effects of ecological restoration project to ecosystem services and the influence on human well-being, not only is the basis of the evaluation and management of the ecological restoration project, the key point of coordinator to relationship. This study selected the area with intense human activity, severe degradation of ecosystem services, sever pressure of social and economic development and population, Haihe River Basin (HRB), as the target area. Based on the statistical model, the ecosystem services assessment model and matter-element analysis method to carry out empirical analysis. The project focus on the effects of ecological restoration engineering projects in HRB, first of all, to clarify the ecological restoration project and space-time multi-scale effect between ecosystem services and comprehensive evaluation way, for the system meet the ecological restoration project effect of ecosystem services provide methods and basis; Secondly, in order to ecosystem services flow as the research of the relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being key link, analyze the ecosystem service function and the dynamic transfer characteristics between human well-being; Finally, the integrated assessment method is proposed by comparing the value of ecosystem service function value and risk value via ecosystem services flow, to promote ecosystem services through ecological restoration engineering and to provide ways and measures to promote human welfare.

全面认识生态恢复工程给生态系统服务带来的效应以及对人类福祉的影响，不仅是评估和管理生态恢复工程的基础，也是协调人地关系的重点。本研究选取人类活动剧烈、生态系统服务退化严重、社会经济发展及人口压力较大的海河流域作为研究对象，采用统计模型、生态系统服务评估模型、物元分析等研究方法开展实证分析。项目围绕海河流域生态恢复工程效应，首先，阐明生态恢复工程与生态系统服务间的时空多尺度效应及综合评估途径，为系统认识生态恢复工程的生态系统服务效应提供方法和依据；其次，以生态系统服务流作为研究生态系统服务与人类福祉关系的关键环节，剖析生态系统服务功能与人类福祉之间的动态传递特征；最后，借助生态系统服务流，通过对生态系统服务功能价值量及风险值的对比，提出整合评估方法，为通过生态恢复工程提升生态系统服务功能、促进人类福祉提供途径和措施。

重大生态工程实施是提高生态系统服务的重要手段，但提升所关注的生态系统服务（如土壤保持）经常以牺牲其他生态系统服务（如粮食生产）为代价，生态系统服务呈现的这种权衡关系既表现在不同类型之间，也表现在不同空间尺度，还随着时间变化而不断变化，给生态工程的生态效益带来巨大不确定性。项目以海河流域内三北防护林、京津风沙源治理工程为例，综合采用长期水文观测、遥感反演、生态系统服务评估模型及多元统计方法等手段，建立了系统表征生态系统服务三类权衡（类型、空间、时间）的科学方法，揭示了重大生态工程的多尺度负效应，提出了全面审视重大生态工程生态效益的新视角；量化了气候变化和生态系统格局、质量变化对生态系统服务权衡的影响，阐明了生态工程和气候变化对海河流域生态系统服务关系传递的应先，为通过兼顾气候变化和时间权衡提高生态恢复工程可持续性提供科学依据。