劳动力迁移背景下山区农户贫困脆弱性研究---以岷江上游为例

The actual effect of poverty alleviation in China is gradually weakening in recent years, and poverty-returning of some people who have shaken off poverty is its distinct manifestation. Relative scholars have also realized that the rural household who is not poor at present will probably be poor in the future because of some kind of risk. Therefore，research on the dynamic change of poverty is more important; and vulnerability which is prospective is a significant perspective for the dynamic change of poverty. This study takes the typical poor mountainous areas—the upper reaches of Min River as an example; divides vulnerability to poverty into two aspects, which are consumption level and consumption fluctuation, respectively; and obtains the measure formula of vulnerability to poverty by using qualitative analysis, quantitative verification and probability methods. And then, based on the realistic features of the research region, this study also evaluates the influencing mechanism of labor migration to vulnerability to poverty caused by different kinds of risk by using econometric models. The research results are helpful for identifying the poor accurately and carrying out different policies and patterns of poverty alleviation in the process of targeted poverty alleviation to rural households who become poor by various reasons. Also, this study expands the traditional research approach to poverty and makes a significant contribution to the theory of sustainable development in mountainous areas.

近年来我国实际的扶贫效果正在逐步减弱，突出表现在部分贫困人口脱贫以后重新返贫，相关学者也意识到现在不贫困的农户可能会由于某种风险冲击而在未来陷入贫困，因此，研究贫困的动态变化尤为重要，脆弱性作为一个前瞻性的概念成为研究贫困动态变化的重要视角；本项目以典型的贫困山区岷江上游为例，将贫困脆弱性分解为消费水平和消费波动两个维度，利用质性分析和定量验证相结合的方法，并借助概率技术得出其测度公式，进而对研究区农户的贫困脆弱性进行测度；同时基于岷江上游现实特征，借助经济计量方法分析劳动力迁移对不同性质风险导致的贫困脆弱性的影响机制；研究结果有助于“精准识别”贫困农户以及对不同致贫原因引起的贫困农户实施不同的扶贫政策和模式，进而真正做到“精准扶贫”；本项目拓展了有关贫困的传统研究思路，为山区可持续发展相关理论做出一定贡献。

生计资本是农户生计策略选择的基础，探讨农户生计策略对生计资本的敏感性对于提高农户生计水平具有重要意义。本项目首先基于可持续生计分析框架构建生计资本测量指标，然后利用参与式农村评估法深入农户进行调研，在此基础上利用熵值法和加权综合模型测度2017年岷江上游农户生计资本的基本特征，并借助计量经济模型分析农户生计策略对生计资本的敏感性。研究结果表明岷江上游不同类型农户生计资本水平并不相同，从高到低依次是兼农型、非农型、农兼型和纯农型；从生计资本类型来看，人力资本和金融资本水平相对较高，物质资本和自然资本水平居中，社会资本水平最低。采取不同类型生计策略的农户数量由多到少依次是非农型>兼农型>农兼型>纯农型。生计策略对不同的生计资本测量指标具有不同的敏感性，其中现金收入、提供经济援助的亲友数、公职人员数3个指标对兼农型和非农型农户生计策略的选择具有正向的作用，各个指标每增加一个单位，农户选择这两种生计策略的发生比分别增加1.464、1.090和1.057倍；而劳动力平均年龄、耕地面积、园地面积、畜禽数量和生产工具现值5个指标具有负向的作用，即各指标每增加一个单位，农户选择兼农型或非农型生计策略的发生比分别降低0.984、0.010、0.728、0.896和0.878倍。评价结果能够为相关政府部门制定脱贫减贫政策提供科学的决策依据。在此基础上，将研究区域农户的贫困脆弱性分解为消费水平和消费波动两个维度，进而借助计量经济模型分析农户贫困脆弱性的影响因素。研究结果表明户主的受教育程度, 劳动力数量和土地资源3个变量对农户未来人均消费水平具有显著的正向影响，农业冲击、健康冲击和教育冲击对农户未来消费方差有显著的正向影响，物质资本和务工收入能够减弱同质风险和异质风险引起的贫困脆弱性，存款仅能够减弱同质风险引起的贫困脆弱性。研究结果有助于“精准识别”贫困农户以及对不同致贫原因引起的贫困农户实施不同的扶贫政策，进而真正做到“精准扶贫”。