基于代谢过程的城市生态系统健康动力学分析

In order to improve urban ecosystem health level, it is very necessary to analyze the evolution mechanism of urban ecosystem health and identify its critical influencing factors. Especially facing with a series of urban eco-environmental problems, it becomes more urgent. Based on theory and method of systems ecology, ecodynamics, and ecological network analysis, this study aims to explore the evolution rule and driving mechanism of urban ecosystem health. Focusing on urban metabolic process and hierarchical structure, the four-in-one framwork is established covering "ecological flow accounting-metabolic process analysis-ecodynamic model establishment-analysis of health evolution rule". The components of urban ecosystme are defined first and their storage and flow are calculated, following which the intrinsic processes within urban ecosystem is analyzed including input, tranformation, storage and discharge. Then, the hierarchical structure of urban metabolism is explored based on ecological network analysis. The driving mechanism of urban ecosystem health is studied based on ecodynamic model of urban ecosystem. Subsequently, the control factors and evoloution characteristics of urban ecosystem health are identified. Thus, the method system based on metabolic process and hierarchical structure is established including simulation, assessment, and prediction of urban ecosystem health. Moreover, case studies are conducted on different groups of cities. After analyzing the multi-dimensional characteristics of urban ecosystem health evolution and identifying corresponding key ecological processes, the urban ecological regulation schems for different groups of cities is optimized. The study is helpful to promote urban stable development. It is expected that eight o twelve papers will be published in the core academic journals, including four to six with quality of SCI citation.

面对一系列城市生态环境问题，剖析城市生态系统健康演化机制、识别关键影响因素，成为提高城市生态系统健康水平的必要条件。本研究依托系统生态学、生态热力学、生态网络分析等理论方法，致力于城市生态系统健康演变规律及驱动机理研究：以城市代谢过程和层级结构为主线，构建"城市生态流核算-代谢过程解析-生态动力学建模-健康演变规律分析"四位一体的研究框架，逐级开展城市系统组分界定及其流量存量计算，输入、转化、储存、排放过程解析，城市代谢层级结构及生态系统健康作用机制发掘，各类城市健康控制因子及演变特征识别的研究，最终建立基于内在代谢过程模拟和层级结构辨识的城市生态系统健康模拟、评价与预测方法体系。并选择不同类型城市开展实证研究，在多维度剖析城市生态系统健康演变规律、识别关键生态过程的基础上，优选城市系统生态调控方案，促进城市健康稳定发展。预期发表核心期刊论文8-12篇，其中SCI收录4-6篇。

面对雾霾、雨洪灾害等一系列城市生态环境问题，剖析城市生态系统健康演化机制、识别关键影响因素、针对性进行生态调控成为保障城市可持续发展、维持人群健康的必要条件。本研究即从系统观出发，依托生态热力学、生态网络分析等方法，致力于城市生态系统健康演变规律研究。首先，以生命体理念为指导，融合代谢过程模拟、生态流量存量核算、部门关系剖析等模块，从理论基础、评价方法、应用实践三个维度，构建了城市生态系统健康诊断理论框架，建立了健康研究新范式；其次，聚焦识别出的关键影响因子，利用生态网络分析、生命周期评价、GIS等技术方法，进一步构建了城市能源安全系统评估、城市景观格局-内涝风险评价、城市碳循环模拟模型，在系统模拟和分析围绕能源、土地、碳等关键因子的城市生态过程的基础上，进行了多角度城市生态系统健康诊断；随后，针对性设定了多种调控情景，结合多目标规划等手段，从能源结构优化、绿色基础设施建设、碳减排等方面提出了城市生态系统健康提升优选方案。最后，选取具有不同发展历史的多国城市作为案例，重点从城市公共健康角度探索了全球城市健康演化规律，发现了各城市不同的金字塔结构，认为全球范围内存在着北京模式-东京模式-纽约模式-伦敦模式的变化趋势，为我国城市生态管理指明了方向。已发表论文14篇，其中SCI收录10篇，SSCI收录6篇，EI收录9篇；并出版专著一部，申请国家发明专利4项, 超额完成了研究成果目标。