面向系统可持续性的城市碳代谢模拟与调控研究

It is essential to reduce urban carbon emissions and construct low-carbon city, in order to mitigate the global climate change, maintain human health and realize sustainable development. However, such key issues are still unclear as the process of carbon transformation, the mechanism of carbon cycle, and the potential impacts of low-carbon construction, which reduce the effectiveness of low-carbon city construction. Based on systems ecology and ecological network analysis (ENA), this study aims to simulate urban carbon metabolism and optimize the related low-carbon measures. The processes of carbon input, output, reserve, and transformation among various urban sectors are decomposed first, following which the simulation model of urban carbon metabolism based on ENA is established. Then, the quantitative interaction patterns among different sectors are analyzed and the key processes, sectors and pathways of carbon metabolism are identified, based on which the classified regulation scenarios are set up. Subsequently, the potential impacts of different scenarios on the carbon metabolism system are comprehensively evaluated by comparing the change of ENA-based indicators (e.g., system’s sustainability, efficiency, and resilience) before and after regulation. Finally, the optimal suggestions of urban low-carbon construction are determined when combining with the emission reduction effect and the impacts on the system’s overall characteristics. Consequently, the four-in-one system for urban carbon metabolism and regualtion is established, including “simulation of carbon metabolism process-identification of key processes and sectors-analysis of carbon storage and emission mechanism-evaluation of regulation scenarios’ impacts and optimization”. Moreover, case studies are conducted on multiple typical Chinese cities, where suitable low-carbon schems are proposed for different cities after analyzing the characteristics of carbon metabolism system and identifying key processes. The study is helpful for guiding diverse low-carbon city construction in different Chinese cities. It is expected that eight to twelve papers will be published in the core academic journals, including four to six indexed by SCI.

科学开展低碳城市建设，对于减缓气候变化、保障人群健康、促进社会可持续发展具有重要意义。针对城市碳迁移转化过程不明、作用机制不清、低碳建设措施效应未知的现状，本研究基于系统生态学理论，依托生态网络分析方法，致力于城市碳代谢过程模拟及调控方案优选研究：解析各部门间碳输入、输出、储存、转化过程，构建城市碳代谢网络定量模拟模型；识别各部门间作用关系，辨识影响碳排放、吸收、储存的关键过程、部门与路径，针对性设立分类调控情景；定量评估各情景对碳代谢网络系统可持续性等整体特征的影响，据此综合确定低碳建设方案，建立一套“碳代谢全过程模拟-关键过程与部门识别-碳蓄积排放机理剖析-调控方案效果评估与优选”四位一体的城市碳代谢模拟与调控研究方法体系。并选择中国多个典型城市开展实证研究，提出适宜各城市的系统性低碳方案建议，指导各城市因地制宜地建设低碳城市。预期发表论文8-12篇，其中SCI收录4-6篇。

科学开展低碳城市建设，对于减缓气候变化、保障人群健康、促进社会可持续发展具有重要意义。针对城市碳迁移转化过程不明、作用机制不清、低碳建设措施效应未知的现状，本项目基于系统生态学理论，致力于城市碳代谢过程模拟及调控方案优选研究，建立了一套“碳代谢全过程模拟-关键过程与部门识别-碳蓄积排放机理剖析-调控方案效果评估与优选”四位一体的城市碳代谢模拟与调控研究方法体系。具体而言，首先，对城市碳代谢过程进行解析，界定涉及的相关部门及各部门间的碳输入、输出、储存、转化过程；其次，引入投入产出分析方法对城市各部门进行统一核算与模拟，在此基础上利用生态网络分析方法构建城市碳代谢网络定量模拟模型，翔实描绘各部门间的碳流路径与方向；随后，通过结构、属性、效用等各类生态网络分析指标提取系统相关信息，分析城市碳代谢网络系统整体特征，识别各部门间作用关系，辨识影响碳代谢的关键过程、部门与路径；最终，分类设立调控情景，基于代谢网络模型运行结果，定量评估各情景对代谢网络系统可持续性等整体特征的影响，据此确立适宜各类型城市的城市低碳建设方案。并选择北京、广州、东莞等多个典型城市开展实证研究，提出适宜各城市的低碳方案建议，为进一步推进我国绿色低碳城镇建设、城市及区域可持续发展提供技术支撑。已登记软件著作权3项；申请国家发明专利4项，其中已授权1项；发表论文23篇，其中SCI收录15篇，SSCI收录15篇，EI收录15篇。