碳排放交易机制下我国重污染行业效率损失的影响机理及防护策略研究

In carbon emission trading scheme, it is an urgent need to expand the study on how to reveal driving factor dimensions of efficiency loss in heavy-pollution industries of China’s provinces, rectify the decision-making behaviors of heavy polluting corporations, and effectively reduce the negative impacts of efficiency loss in heavy-pollution industries. Based on efficiency loss as embedding angle, our project proposes Stochastic frontier model, multi regions energy-environment -economy CGE model(CE3MS), competitive and non-competitive assumption of multi regions input-output analysis and then identify key driving factors and mechanism formation process of efficiency loss in heavy-pollution industries of China’s provinces under the nationwide emission trading scheme. Our research analyzes that policy adjustment such as allocation rules of carbon quotas, quotas allocation standards of industrial sectors, technical progress, carbon quotas allocation scheme and border tax, reduces potential economic and environmental impacts of efficiency loss in heavy-pollution industries of China’s provinces, and especially solves key issues such as portfolio ratio and executing times between free and auction allocation, coverage, ratio, executing times and tax type of border tax. Our empirical results are helpful for government policy-makers to identify key factors dimensions of efficiency loss in different heave-pollution industries of China’s provinces, timely introduce appropriate carbon quotas allocation mechanism and border tax adjustment policy and then achieve coordination mechanism between market-oriented emission reduction incentives and industry development.

在碳排放交易机制下，如何揭示各省份重污染行业效率损失的驱动要素维度，矫正重污染企业的决策行为，有效地降低重污染行业效率损失的负面影响，是亟需展开的研究。本项目是以效率损失作为嵌入视角，构建随机前沿模型(SFA)、多区域能源-环境-经济CGE模型(CE3MS)、竞争型和非竞争型多区域投入产出模型，识别碳交易机制下我国各省份重污染行业所产生效率损失的驱动要素及其机理形成过程。仿真分析碳额分配方式、产业部门配额分配标准、工艺技术进步、碳额分配机制以及边界税收等政策调整对降低各省份重污染行业效率损失的潜在经济和环境影响，重点解决免费与拍卖组合比例和执行时间、边界税收的覆盖范围、税率、执行时间及其税种等关键问题，有助于政府决策者辨别各省份重污染行业效率损失的关键要素维度、适时引入恰当的碳额分配机制和边界税收策略，实现市场化减排激励与产业发展的协调机制。

碳交易机制与跨区域经济利益分配冲突以及污染行业经济效率冲突问题是未来十年实现减排承诺和资源合理配置的关键议题。其核心问题是如何从公平与效率视角在不同的区域和污染行业实现高效合理碳配额分配，协同跨区域和跨行业实现绿色可持续发展。本课题借助熵值法、非线性规划、关联网络超效率SBM模型和ML生产率指数法等模型仿真和统计方法，开展了不同的污染行业绿色经济效率的驱动因素及其影响机理，仿真分析碳配额分配、碳交易机制对跨区域和跨行业经济效率的潜在经济和环境影响，试图解决碳交易机制下协调跨区域和跨行业的工业产值、碳排放效率和减排成本节约之间的利益冲突问题。本课题建议政府决策者关注节能减排约束政策、产业聚集、对外开放、市场竞争等关键因素对不同区域和行业工业绿色经济转变产生了重要影响，从经济发展水平、减排责任、减排潜力和能源效率等维度综合衡量不同区域和行业的碳配额分配方案设计，从公平和效率视角评价不同碳配额分配方式对跨区域和跨行业经济效率和碳排放效率的影响差异性。本项研究不仅对碳配额分配与碳交易经济效率等领域形成有益的补充，还有助于政府决策者测评绿色工业经济转变的驱动因素和甄别碳交易机制对污染行业经济效率损失的调整策略提供了科学的实验参考。