多目标诉求下我国交通节能减排市场导向的政策组合选择研究

This study aims to manage traffic demand for realizling harmonious development of energy, environment and economy, making a choice of economic policy of transportation energy conservation and emissions reduction with market-oriented economic measures. Firstly, multi-source information such as successful practice experience and theoretical research results of international transportation development are summarized by using multivariate META-analysis. Then, combining Bayes econometric models, a integrated information approach is innovated when some data are missing. Potential analysis for transportation energy conservation and emissions reduction with traffic structure optimization and technical progress is making under the multi-objective demands of energy - environment - economy. Secondly, based on multi-source information fusion and multi-objective constraints, to illuminate the influencing mechanism of market-oriented economic measures and their combination to transportation energy conservation and emissions reduction. Finally, considering the particularity of the region and city, and taking Xi'an and the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone as an example, simulating and verifying the effect of transportation energy conservation and emissions reduction based on the path choice of combining the market-oriented economic policies, and building cities and regional transportation pricing model. In the situation of harmonizing the energy-environment-economy multi-objective, synthesizing the nation-region-city levels and coordinating the government-market means, systematic study of transportation energy conservation and emissions reduction is made to laid a theoretical foundation of transportation development mode for only pursuing economic benefits.

本研究以满足我国能源、环境与经济协调发展的交通需求管理为目标，以市场导向的经济手段为主要举措，给出我国交通节能减排的经济政策选择。首先，基于多元Meta-analysis凝练国内外交通发展实践案例及理论研究结果等多源信息基础上，结合Bayes计量经济模型，创新数据缺失下的信息融合集成方法，给出能源-环境-经济多目标诉求下交通结构、技术变动的交通节能减排潜力分析。其次，在多源信息融合及多目标约束下，拟阐明市场导向经济政策及其组合对交通节能减排的影响机制。最后，考虑区域及城市层面的特殊性，以西安和关中-天水经济区为例，模拟和验证市场导向经济政策组合路径选择下的交通节能减排效果，构建城市及区域交通定价理论模型。在协调能源-环境-经济多个目标、综合国家-区域-城市三个层面、协同政府-市场两种手段的情景下，对交通节能减排问题进行了系统性研究，为改进只追求经济效益的交通发展模式奠定了理论基础。

交通运输节能减排是一项复杂的系统工程，影响因素众多，影响机理复杂，本项目在总结前人研究及国内外对比分析的基础上，从以下几个方面扩展了前人的研究：1）通过建立贝叶斯结构方程模型，比较了中美两国的交通基础设施、交通成本、经济活动等潜在变量对道路交通需求的影响；2）对比分析中国、美国、欧盟以及日本4类交通方式（公路、铁路、水运、民航）客货周转量和交通碳排放量；3）通过价格分解模型，将中国、日本、美国的汽油、柴油价格进行分解后，探讨其对各国客运需求、货运需求的非对称性影响效应；4）对支撑交通发展的化石能源（原油、天然气）的结构、价格、供需与节能减排潜力的研究等。总体上，以上研究的结果说明，目前中国国情下，交通运输结构性节能减排是最为重要的，也是首要的突破口，政策通过交通成本差异来实现交通节能减排的效果不佳或者说是力度不够，交通运输政策需要首先引导交通运输结构的调整。