节能减排政策对我国高耗能产业跨区域转移的影响研究

In recent years, because of the significantly increasing of factor costs, the constraint of resources and the ever strengthening environmental regulation in eastern China, energy-intensive and pollution-intensive industries have indicated an obvious tendency of cross-regional reorganizing of industrial chain, a significant sign of which is transfer from eastern China to central and western China. From the perspective of industrial chain, the influences of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies on cross-regional transfer of energy-intensive industries will be assessed in the project. The aims are to reveal the law of energy-intensive industries transfer and its response to policies, as well as to provide basis for decision making for central and local governments. The conduction of the project will be organized as follows. Firstly, the content of industrial transfer will be defined explicitly from the perspective of industry chain, and the relationship between industrial chain reorganizing and transfer of energy-intensive industries will be discussed. Then, based on multi-regional input-output model, a method to quantify cross-regional transfer of energy-intensive industries will be developed and used to quantify the transfer during the period of 2002-2012, and at the same time, the spatial pattern and dynamic mechanism of transfer of energy-intensive industries will be clarified. At last, a prediction model and an optimized model of cross-regional transfer of energy-intensive industries will be built based on economic links and division of industry chain of different regions, and the influences of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in the 13th FYP on cross-regional transfer of energy-intensive industries will be assessed in terms of scenario analysis, according to the simulation results, based on which the optimization goal and path will be proposed. The significance of the project lies on contributing to theories and quantitative methods of industrial transfer and industrial chain, and also providing quantitative basis for making regional development strategies and industrial policies.

近年来，我国东部地区要素成本大幅上升，资源约束和环境规制的力度不断加强，产业链跨区域重组趋势明显，突出表现在高耗能、高污染产业大规模向中西部地区转移。本项目基于产业链视角，研究我国节能减排政策对高耗能产业跨区域转移的影响，以揭示高耗能产业转移的基本规律及政策响应机制，从而为各级政府部门提供决策依据。项目首先探讨产业链跨区域重组与高耗能产业转移的相互关系；然后基于区域间投入产出模型建立高耗能产业转移测度方法，定量测度2002-2012年间我国高耗能产业跨区域转移量，阐明转移的空间格局与动力机制；考虑区域间经济联系与产业链分工，构建多区域模型进行情景分析，在评估高耗能产业转移对各区域节能减排影响的基础上，基于模型分析阐明“十三五”期间节能减排政策对高耗能产业跨区域转移的影响，并提出转移的优化目标和路径。本项目将进一步丰富产业转移与产业链理论，并为区域发展战略与产业政策的制定提供定量依据。

近年来，我国东部地区要素成本大幅上升，资源约束和环境规制的力度不断加强，高耗能、高污染产业向中西部地区转移的趋势明显。产业转移是否带来了污染排放的空间转移？各区域节能减排目标是否能阻止污染排放转移？相关研究能为区域承接产业转移和制定节能减排目标提供定量依据。本项目基于2007年和2012年中国投入产出表和区域间投入产出模型，定量测度我国高耗能产业跨区域转移量，评估了我国高耗能产业跨区域转移的环境效应，以及节能减排政策对高耗能产业跨区域转移的影响，揭示了高耗能产业转移的基本规律及政策响应机制。研究结果显示，近年来中国产业转移导致工业碳排放重心继续向西北移动，区域间贸易中隐含的碳排放由北向南、由西向东流动，高耗能产业的跨区域转移导致碳排放从低碳强度的省份向高碳强度的省份转移。在节能减排目标约束下，承接产业转移的区域必须优化产业结构，其中重点的调控对象为煤炭开采与洗选业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业等高耗能产业。本项目按照计划书进行，达到了预期的研究目标，相关结论为区域发展战略与产业政策的制定提供了依据。