优势产业组合、竞争力空间与结构转型研究

A country cannot rely solely on one advantage industry whose revealed comparative advantage(RCA)was greater than 1, but the portfolio of advantage industries to compete globally. Is there competition amongst countries? How do they compete with each other? Could developing and upgrading portfolio of advantage industries be a solution to enhance a country's position in competition and then gain super economic performance? And if so, how could this help to strengthen a country's competitiveness? To answer all these questions, this project aims to use co-occurrence analysis to establish similarity matrices of industries and countries, based on which, the concept "competitiveness space" will be developed. Social network analysis techniques will be further used to visualize it and measure related structural parameters. The competitiveness space consists of 2 sub-spaces:1. Competitiveness space of industries based on exports(CSIE), 2. Competitiveness space of countries based on exports(CSCE). CSIE will display the structural characteristics of portfolio of advantage industries whereas CSCE will be a "competitive atlas", demonstrating the dynamics in competition amongst countries. Based on these, econometric models will be used to validate the relationship between the economic performance of a country and the structural characteristics that this country has in the competiveness space. This is to the secure the legitimacy of the research and meanwhile to test an on-going controversy: Do countries compete earch other like firms? Then, econometric models and case studies will be both employed to explore in depth the dynamical evolution and structural transformation of countries in the competiveness space. Finally, Chinese customs data (which report region-level exports and imports by 6-digit product over the 1997-2009 period) will be evidenced to show the dynamical evolution of China's competiveness space in order to provide guidance to upgrade and optimize the portfolio of advantage industries, direct the structural transformation of china and its provinces, reinforce China's competitive advantage in the global competition.

产业国际竞争力的已有研究大多忽略了一个基本事实：国家是靠优势产业组合而非单个优势产业参与国际竞争。如何设计和升级优势产业组合来提升国家的竞争地位，进而取得卓越经济绩效？这成为尚待解决的前沿问题，也是难题。 为此，本项目采取"可视化"研究策略，拟以各国优势产业组合为对象，运用共发生法获得相似矩阵，同时构建产业空间和国家空间，并统称为竞争力空间；前者展现各国优势产业组合的结构特征，而后者更是一张呈现国家之间竞争态势的地图。通过两个空间的联动分析，不仅可揭示优势产业组合结构特征、国家竞争地位和经济绩效之间的内在机制，更通过近50年的国际贸易数据深度刻画国家在两空间的动态演进机制和结构转型问题。 就理论创新而言，本项目不仅试图丰富优势产业组合的相关研究，更希望通过可视化的竞争力空间开启本领域尚未探寻的空白- - 国家竞争行为的研究，推动战略管理理论向"国家"层面的拓展，如战略集团理论等。

产业国际竞争力的已有研究大多忽略了一个基本事实：国家是靠优势产业组合而非单个优势产业参与国际竞争。如何设计和升级优势产业组合来提升国家的竞争地位，进而取得卓越经济绩效？这成为尚待解决的前沿问题，也是难题。.为此，本项目采取“可视化”研究策略，拟以各国优势产业组合为对象，运用共发生法获得相似矩阵，同时构建产业空间和国家空间，并统称为竞争力空间；前者展现各国优势产业组合的结构特征，而后者更是一张呈现国家之间竞争态势的地图。国家空间的动态研究表明国家之间的竞争如同田径场上的长跑比赛，可称之为“能力加值比赛”。通过模型构建和回归分析，本研究进一步证明了国家在国家空间里的向量中心性与经济增长的倒U型关系，并探寻了出口结构调整的竞争效应的影响。.在产品空间的动态演进中，“金砖五国”的升级路径大同小异，基本遵循比较优势的渐进式发展方式，呈现出对既有资源禀赋的“粘性”。中国全产业的产品复杂度一定程度上抑制了产业的升级发展，同时也抑制了相关产业产品失势和市场退出，而日本全产业的产品复杂度则推动了日本产业进一步升级发展，并且有利于相关产业产品失势与市场退出。中国的产业升级更多的是依赖现有要素禀赋的积累，遵循比较优势，实现“渐进式发展”路径，而美国是偏离现有比较优势，利用现有的要素禀赋塑造新的比较优势的“跨越式发展”路径；中国作为“制造大国”与“制造强国”美国的制造业竞争力存在一定的差异，但是存在发展的“机会窗口”。.就理论创新而言，本项目不仅试图丰富优势产业组合的相关研究，更希望通过可视化的竞争力空间开启本领域尚未探寻的空白——国家竞争行为的研究，推动战略管理理论向“国家”层面的拓展等。