低碳经济视角下的现代农村物流体系构建及调控研究

The contradiction between resource environment and economic development has become increasingly prominent nowadays, so the traditional extensive rural logistics operation mode, whose typical features are high energy consumption and high emission, has been unable to meet the needs of the development of modern logistics. Construction of resource-saving, environment-friendly, intensive, efficient and low-carbon logistics system is the inevitable trend of modern rural logistics development. In view of this, this topic follows the train of thought "problem identification→literature research to model building→empirical research→ countermeasure suggestions". Firstly, the feasibility of introducing the concept of low carbon into rural logistics and the necessity of developing low carbon logistics in rural areas will be analyzed. Secondly, based on the Interpretative Structural Modeling Method (ISM), we explore the main factors that affect the construction of modern low-carbon rural logistics system and identify and quantify the key sensitive factors in it. After that, based on these factors, we build an evolutionary model of the modern rural logistics system under the perspective of low-carbon economy and analyze the dynamic behavior of this system. Then, with the aid of system science method, this paper discusses the evolutionary behavior of variables in the system such as inventory, energy intensity, economic growth. With the measurable indicator of the variables' evolutionary trend, the modern low-carbon rural logistics operation system is optimized. Finally, in order to better guide the development of the modern rural logistics industry of our country, we explore the reasonable measures which can control the modern low-carbon rural logistics and make better resource combination scheme based on the results of the previous study.

在资源环境与经济发展的矛盾日益突出的今天，传统的粗放式、高能耗、高排放的农村物流运作模式已经无法满足现代物流的发展需要，建设资源节约、环境友好、集约高效的低碳物流体系是现代农村物流发展的必然趋势。鉴于此，本课题按照"问题识别→文献研究→模型构建→实证研究→对策建议"的思路，首先，分析将低碳概念引入农村物流的可行性以及发展低碳农村物流的必要性；然后，基于解释结构模型(ISM)探索了影响现代低碳农村物流体系建设的主要因素，识别并量化其中的关键敏感因素；接着，基于这些因素，构建低碳经济视角下的现代农村物流系统演化模型，分析系统的动力学行为；进而，借助系统科学方法，探讨系统中库存量、能源强度、经济增长等变量的演化行为，以这些变量的演化趋势为衡量指标，对现代低碳农村物流运行体系进行优化；最后，根据前述研究成果，探索合理的现代低碳农村物流调控措施和资源组合方案，以期更好地指导我国现代农村物流。

针对粗放式、高能耗的农村物流运作模式已经无法满足现代物流的发展需要这一现状，充分考虑了农村物流中碳排放问题，主要研究了农村物流发展的关键影响因素和影响机理，农村物流、地区经济发展与低碳目标三者之间的行为逻辑和演化机制，政府与行业的引导策略、物流企业行为选择等内容。首先，分析我国农村物流碳排放与经济增长之间弱脱钩趋势，运用数据调查、实地走访及分析法验证农村物流引入低碳概念的必要性和可行性；采用ISM分析法识别和理清农村物流低碳发展的核心因素及其之间的主次关系，并建立了农产品物流低碳发展评价指标体系；采用系统动力学明确了农村物流碳排放、农村物流供需量、产品库存量与经济发展水平的因果关系，建立了低碳视角下农村物流系统动力学模型，探索相应的政策调控措施。研究发现：（1）农村物流能源强度和农村物流碳强度为压力因素；地区经济发展为状态因素；技术发展环境和政策环境为响应因素；应用水平和人才培养为驱动因素。（2）农产品物流环境、物流业基础设备与社会经济发展都是影响农产品低碳发展的关键因素。（3）农村经济发展增加物流投资，物流投资增加带来了物流碳排放量上升，碳排放量增加造成的损失阻碍农村的经济发展；另一方面，农村经济发展会增加物流投资，增强农村货运供给能力，增加了农村货运周转量和物流资产，反向推进农村经济发展。（4）组合政策的实施更能快速实现低碳发展的目标，由于低碳技术发展水平和低碳治理效率，碳税暂时不适合我国农村物流发展的现状。该研究是农村物流研究的创新，对于促进环境科学和管理科学的交叉研究具有重要的理论价值。以上研究结果可以作为农村物流企业决策和政府环境政策制定的理论依据，对低碳产业体系构建重要现实意义。本研究最终形成了一系列的研究成果，出版专著3部，发表学术论文29篇（其中SSCI&SCI检索4篇，基金委管理学部重要期刊论文4篇），并培养博士2人，硕士生13人。