以公共价值为基础的沙漠化治理政策绩效评价与校验

The project takes the public value as a basic framework to build a system including execution process of desertification control policy and performance evaluation of the ecological effects, then quantitatively evaluates the performance of the implemented desertification control policy through extracting the index factors from some aspects such as "fairness" of the policy process, respect for the subject of "co-production", the management "efficiency" of the government departments, "sustainability" of ecological effects and relevance of policy change on desertification. According to the isomorphism characteristics of improving public value and reducing transaction costs in performance management objectives of desertification control policy, taking performance calculation of desertification control policy based on the transaction costs as verification on the performance of public value can overcome artificiality created by extracting indexes from satisfaction angle of the ecological construction actors in public value assessment and improve its accuracy at a certain degree. Taking advantage of game analysis and contract management theory to reveal the intrinsic mechanism of the policy effect, analyze the different causes of desertification control policy performance differences and make quantitative simulation on running results of desertification policy under various scenarios in the future. This project will provide a new and scientific method for the performance evaluation of ecological policy and a new attempt to incorporate the ecological construction policy into the government performance management system.

本项目以公共价值为基本框架，构建沙漠化治理政策的执行过程+生态效果的绩效评价体系，从政策过程的"公平性"、对"合作生产"主体的尊重性、政府部门管理的"效率性"、生态效果的"可持续性"、政策对沙漠化变化的相关性等方面提取指标因子，定量评价已经实施的沙漠化治理政策的绩效。根据沙漠化治理政策绩效管理目标中提高公共价值与降低交易成本具有同构性的特点，把沙漠化治理政策基于交易成本的绩效计算，作为对公共价值绩效的校验，从而在一定程度上克服公共价值绩效评估中从生态建设行为主体满意角度提取指标带来的人为性，提高它的准确度。利用博弈分析和契约管理理论，揭示政策产生作用的内在机制，分析不同的沙漠化治理政策绩效差异的成因，定量模拟未来不同情景下沙漠化政策的运行结果。本项目将为生态政策绩效评价提供一种全新而科学的方法，并为把生态建设政策纳入政府绩效管理体系提供一种新尝试.

沙漠化的人为因素对于沙漠化具有双向的作用，人口压力变化是开启这种双向开关的钥匙。本项目构建了沙漠化与人口压力、风速、降水量之间的函数关系，定量分析了不同时段沙漠化与这些因素的关系，更好地解释了沙漠化2000年以前大幅度增加，之后大规模逆转的现象。生态建设政策公益性的特点，使得以公共价值为基础评价其绩效成为必然。我们通过公共行政的范式演变，确定了生态治理项目的公共价值内涵、生产和转移的途径，建立沙漠化治理政策执行过程 + 生态效果的公共价值绩效评价指标体系和模型。同时，从制度经济学的交易成本分析入手，建立以成本分析为基础的生态治理项目绩效评价的模型，用来和公共价值绩效评价模型相互校正，相互补充。据此，对典型沙漠地区实施的退耕还林、小流域治理、“三北”防护林、草地禁牧4种生态建设政策的绩效进行了测算和对比分析，证明我们建立的沙漠化治理政策绩效评价指标和模型都是可行的。本项目还就环境压力研究，侧重生态足迹家族的统一度量及其与经济增长的关系，城乡居民生活直接、间接碳排放量的动态变化，居民活动时间和消费支出的变动对能源消耗的影响。这些将为沙漠化防治政策的设计和绩效评价，提供了科学依据。